Along with one or two of the lib Supreme Court justices dying and getting replaced with Christian fascist.
I predicted this almost a year ago.
Can't find the post but basically I said that Dems would do some stupid shit like waste political capital on gun control (they did) and other nonsense (like talking about taxing vapes and tobacco) and that they would do nothing to actually address material needs of people struggling through the pandemic (and they haven't) this would lead to voter apathy and a massive blowout in 2022. Following that, it's obvious they would try to impeach Biden after the multiple attempts to impeach Trump, only this time they will have taken both chambers of congress and can actually do it.
And yes it will be very funny :jokerfication:
Two things, political capital isn't real, and they did not "try" to impeach Trump. They did impeach him. It is simply only symbolic unless the Senate votes to remove, which requires an impossible 67 Senate votes. I cannot imagine what would make 67 senators vote to remove a president but there will not be 67 senators voting to remove Biden or anyone else. Only 14 democrat senators are up for reelection in 2022 so even if Democrats lost every single one (they won't), you would need a manchin, a sinema, and a third "bipartisan" democrat senator to remove.
What would be more funny is invoking the 25th amendment and democrats that go along with it and signal loyalty to constitutionality and norms and all that liberal bullshit.
Andrew Johnson was acquitted during his impeachment trial since the Senate fell short of 1 vote (35 out of 36). That's the closest it's ever gotten.
The funniest thing that could possibly happen would be if a long drawn out 25th amendment battle that goes nowhere for months, then Biden resigns out of respect for procedure, then Harris is made president and immediately impeached for...I don't even know, admitting to smoking weed one time
Blowout WIN for the Democrats is far more likely than a blowout win for the GOP. The fact that everyone in the Chapoverse is "convinced" that the Dems will lose makes me think that Dems will win 250+ house seats and 55+ Senators more and more every day.
I don't even care that's just a hellworld prediction. Caring about this shit is for libs just have fun.
Arguing is fun!
Fr fr tho, Leftists need to stop talking about "material conditions" as if they have any relevance to American politics because the fact is none of us understand anything about real material conditions.
Leftists need to stop talking about “material conditions” as if they have any relevance to American politics
:wut:
they got a point, american politics is about culture and scoring points. No one in this country even really connects politics to material conditions because its neolib hell.
Culture wars are downstream of material conditions though. What specific type of dumb bullshit that appeals to chuds and libs does not appear out of thin air. It's a result of material conditions
I think thats the basic socialist assumption but honestly not sure its even true for americans
Clinton lost because of the Rust Belt, because of NAFTA. Trump lost because of covid. Material conditions absolutely have an effect.
This is some culture war brainworms, comrade. The power structures in the United States are absolutely determined by the owning class. Just because the superstructure is convoluted doesn’t mean the base doesn’t exist. And if wha you’re saying amounts to “the superstructure is a lot more complicated than Marx made it out to be”, then you’re about 100 years late to the party on that
Correct, but "politics" in the United States are pure superstructure. The base exists, but it's irrelevant to the "political" discussion because any political entity with any sort of real power is in complete agreement on how the base operates (more money for us, fuck you).
literally by definition "material conditions" IS what exists, including both the base and superstructure. The internet is material, including cults on it, despite how disconnected from reality they might be. "Material" doesn't just mean something that is physical.
I see what you mean though, that liberal politics is delusional and leftists shouldnt try to engage in it. However, we definitely should never stop trying to make sense of and analyze material conditions, it is impossible as well.
So basically, it's Doomer Pascal's Wager.
If the doomer prediction doesn't happen, it's a pleasant surprise. If it does happen, well, I told you so.
If the optimist's prediction happens, it's just as they expected. If it doesn't happen, it just feels like more hellworld.
There is no optimistic outcome in this scenario lol (besides the obvious :xi-god-emperor: )
I'm also kinda leaning in the direction the Democrats just dominate politics for the next 10 years. Trump was a traumatic event for so many Americans because it forced them to have an opinion on how the government works. I don't think anyone actually enjoyed it. Everyone was pissed off all the time. It got exhausting and people seem to rather want everything to go back to just living in the suburbs, eating your treats, go to work until you die.
It also doesn't help that normal everyday Republican voters are bleeding out rapidly. They're either losing enthusiasm or they're all dying. The ones who stuck around are getting freakishly Q-pilled and alienating everyone around them. The January riot at the capital was unpopular with absolutely everyone, including the chuds. They're all going nuts and the more sane ones are completely checking out.
It seems to me that the Q crowd is running a successful, decentralized harassment campaign at school boards / local government meetings across the country right now. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them as freakishly Q-pilled agitators. As living standards continue to decline, I think people could become more receptive to their conspiratorial theories of blame.
In my view, the right could tolerate these people because they represent an army of zealots who are far more activated than the typical voter. And that's putting aside the fact that the Q crowd could / does get its own into office, who can then become something reckon with. This attitude of "Republican Party to Soon Become Irrelevant" is something I've heard before -- before Hillary ate shit in 2016.
I have a different memory of the Trump years. People loved dunking on that guy! You could write the same "Wall Closing in on Trump" / "This Remark Crossed. The. Line." article every week for 4 years and just change some proper nouns around and you would have a massive audience. People hated him for sure, but they also got off on this overhyped good vs. evil narrative where they were acting like reply guys and thinking it was heroic
It seems to me that the Q crowd is running a successful, decentralized harassment campaign at school boards / local government meetings across the country right now.
Funny you should say QAA just dropped a very relevant episode
GOP voters bleeding out was a demographic inevitably. That's part of the reason why Dems were so triumphant in 2016 and dismissed the possibility of a Trump presiency. Trump was a "retreat to move forward" in that respect - someone who's odious to the vast majority of voters but also helps shake up a stale brand who's constituency is literally dying out.
The GOP is sacrificing some elections they could have won now in exchange for rebranding in a way that will theoretically help them in the future (based Chads who want to RETVRN to Latin Mass, ban single mothers, and eliminate taxes on cryptocurrency). There's going to be a lot of short-term pain as older and middle aged moderates are turned off, but very soon we're gonna be in a situation where the GOP is increasingly the "youthful" party while the Dems get more and more necrotic.
Those demographics you mentioned, traditional Catholics and crypto weirdos, are those actual plays the GOP is trying to do or are they just representative of splintering segments of who they should try to appeal to? I'm not sure the general population gives a shit about mandatory church or cyrpto, nor do those things even enter their consciousness. If the Republicans are recoordinating for different demographics, I'd love to read about it. I know for a while they've tried to claim to be more racially diverse, but that hasn't gone anywhere.
You're absolutely right though, the Republican boomer types do not have long to live and are actively chasing lifestyles and policies that kill them.
They were joke caricatures that I came up with that represent the general trend that the American Right is moving towards - a lot more internet culture, a lot of influence from the European Right and a more isolationist outlook. Think Barry Goldwater mixed with Generation Identitaire as opposed to the evangelical Neocons or the Rockefeller Republicans.
I guess I'm struggling to see what a right-wing in the US will look like without the hokey Reagnites. Whatever that's called has been the dominant branding of Republican values for over 40 years now. The whole constitution loving, go back to the 1950s, small business, anti-socialist, suburban whites who like low property taxes and go to a protestant megachurch on Sunday followed by a trip to Golden Corral. That's who their social base is.
I know in my heart it's all run by the lizard monster businessmen ruling class who do not give a single shit about what moral vision they supposedly promote, which is why I know they can change their tune instantly. I can only see the Republicans changing their demographics as far out as 2050, when the last of the boomers finally are gone.
I see a gradual shift, which is usually how these things occur. The hokey Reaganites won't be banished or anything, they'll just have less and less influence as time goes on and they literally fall away. These people are a shrinking share of the population.
Younger Millennials and Zoomers aren't living that life, in large part because they haven't had the same economic opportunities. Unless you think the USA is going to be on the rebound, the Megachurch class will wither away pretty soon. If Republicans are smart, they're building a contingency plan with the young fringe types.
waste political capital on gun control
MS-13/etc are on the minds of their petite bourgeois voter base.
what are you talking about wasting political cap on gun control? They havent even done that.
There was literally talk about it after the metro shooting in California.
Of course it was unpopular and they stopped talking about it soon after but that's exactly what I mean.
This is why it's important to vote. Vote for democrats. They are not the same as Republicans. They will feed us bread crumbs atleast :so-true:
They won't need to impeach Biden. He came into power a lame duck and is now almost a non-entity puppet moved about by whichever faction of Cabinet is in power this week.
If they can get the deep state on side the dem cabinet will be dead in the water or co-opted and the Republican establishment will, finally, have absolute power and Biden will get the blame for anything they do.
They'll impeach him or their supporters will rip them apart.
I think 30-40% of elected GOP are scared of being killed by their own voters if they aren't rabid enough.
Why aren't democrats scared?
No, their supporters will not rip them apart, come on. If we learned anything, their supporters don't give a shit about anything except owning the libs. They could own the Executive Branch, and have every single seat in the Senate and House somehow, and then do absolutely nothing, and their supporters would still be happy because they're owning the libs, or they'd still say it's the Democrats' fault somehow.
Liz Cheney had enough death threats after voting against impeachment that she couldn't even live in her own home for awhile.
Depends on how bad things get in 2022. I'd wager if we hit a recession the GOP base will become absolutely bonkers for blood.
Because poor and minority dems are scared of the republicans and think the dems might at least slow the horror parade if they aren't hung from the lampposts(they won't).
Richer dems, of course, have the system working as intended, they get their moralist wankery, and they get no actual threat to their pocket book.
It'll take real desperation (food and power shortages) or a complete collapse of democrat institutional glamour to do this, and if the covid deaths under Biden didn't do it I don't know what will.
I'm sure it will happen though, the US is in a terminal spiral and the last few months have made me think it's closer to the ground than I thought.
The dems are pretty much 2 election cycles(ie 4 years) from being effectively extinct. I don’t think those in power really care and a lot of their desperate supporters are being gaslit into believing they’re on an equal footing.
Extinct? Where are the democratic politicians going to go? I don't see the party going anywhere. They'll just be out of office, which won't matter because they are just as ineffectual when they hold power.
They will become lobbyists which is about as close to a politician as you can get in the US.
Why aren’t democrats scared?
Radlibs: "yikes, I can't believe Briahna is STILL talking about Force the Vote! She's so stupid for trying to use leverage on our elected officials"
They won’t need to impeach Biden. He came into power a lame duck and is now almost a non-entity puppet moved about by whichever faction of Cabinet is in power this week.
Is that really true though? Like I'm totally on board with the reality that Biden is sun-downing and I absolutely think there's conversations being made about the viability of his candidacy in 2024 but if he was that much of a nonentity puppet how do you explain the Afghanistan withdrawal?
Only a lame duck could tear off that band-aid.
Everyone in power who wasn’t getting kickbacks knew we had to give up eventually, but no one who plans to get re-elected would do so.
Also it was set up by Trump who probably would have changed his mind.
Eh...I don't know...it seemed to me like there was a pretty big contingent of powerful interests still ready to kick that horse. I don't really disagree with the characterization of him as a lame duck who was able to pull off the bandaid but I think calling him a nonentity puppet is a bit too far a reach. A lot of feathers got ruffled.
I'm struggling to put this into words. Maybe someone can help? I'm not so sure the right-wing in the US can be successfully mobilized anymore. I don't mean militia preppers or internet fascists, they're their own thing. I mean the boomer chuds in the suburbs who put Trump signs in their front lawns. They were in it for Trump himself and that's it. Of course they're going to vote for anyone with R next to their name, but there's such a lack of enthusiasm in the general population for anything political. Everyone's either fallen back to the fringes, or they're hanging on to memories of 2016, or they're actually joining cults.
It's also entirely possible that the people in the US most interested in voting (older, suburban white people) died of covid in alarming rates and simply no longer have a voice, so there's an illusion of lack of enthusiasm.
Also, I'm not going to be surprised if the Republicans win the House with over 300 seats in 2022. My gut also says they'll run generic White Business Guy in 2024, instead of some kind of flamboyant charismatic figure.
Judging by what I see people I know post on Facebook, they got so extreme and insane that anyone remotely normal couldn't handle them, so they just started being quieter about it around people who aren't similarly riled up.
If they're anything like my relatives, they'll either get so far down the Q pipeline their politics don't resemble anything rational and they'll even start to claim the Republicans are Satanists, or they'll succumb to their short attention span and stop caring about voting or who the president is.
He'd lose if that's the case. His voter base has stopped caring or become so insane they think he's a hologram. The bourgeoisie also have nothing to gain from him.
He won by razor thin margins of 20k people split across three states and was unpopular his entire 4 years. The ruling classes also don't seem pleased with him. They basically eradicated him out of normal American media too, which should really signal how done they are with him.
I think in the run up to 2024 he'll make a lot of noise about running again but ultimately wont because he knows he'd lose.
Hasn't he run in every presidential election for the past 2 decades or so?
Biden won't be removed in any circumstance, no way Republicans are securing a 2/3 majority in the senate.
Dems might do the New Labour shit, start their own Third Way party, get absolutely crucified when their base pillars them as splitters, and then come crawling back into the Biden Administration to lick their wounds and blame Bernie Sanders.
But joining the GOP at this stage of the game is suicidal. You're just asking to be primaried to the curb by your local MTG.
The realistic best case scenario for Republicans is a 55 seat majority. You expect 12 democrats to vote for the removal of a democratic president?
They'll use the 25th ammendment and emphasize the role of Kamala and the cabinet. They're dumb, but not hand this easy if a victory to Republicans dumb.
Republicans will pack the Supreme Court. Or possibly lower every time a judge dies, and hot swap Justices.
They have a political creativity the Dems utterly lack because the Republicans have goals and actually make plans. Democrats are purely reactionary (as in they only react to stimulation and do not take action otherwise)
The Dems will gain at least 4 Senate seats in 2022, the map is just too favorable for them. I believe that they will gain at least 5 House seats as well, possibly 20+.
What will be funny is watching the excuses they come up with to still do nothing.
PA, NC, AK, OH are guaranteed flips for the Dems. I'd argue IA and WI are winnable too, WI is a guaranteed flip if Ron Johnson isn't running. If any of those fail, Missouri and Florida are also likely, maybe even a weird one like Louisiana.
For the House, a lot of states have switched to non-partisan redistricting which will give Dems a boost overall. Plus the fact that I think people are way too harsh on Biden/the Dems - your average Boomer Hog does what the TV says, and the TV says Democrats are the best thing since sliced bread while the GOP are evil traitors who want to destroy democracy and America. They're gonna clamp down on Facebook, which means people over 55 will become staunch liberals overall. Trump might have given the GOP a future in 20 years with PePes, but that shit is extremely toxic in the short term for demented olds, so Democrats will see big gains.
This is a complete dreamworld prediction. I'm not some doom porner, but this is like, a top 0.1% of situations scenario.
OH is more likely to go for the GOP by double digits than it is for Democrats. The GOP has swept every race there for 5 years except for one Senate race in 2018. PA is probably 60/40 GOP at this point. The GOP won the congressional vote there in 2020. Alaska is a safe Republican seat with Murkowski there. North Carolina isn't impossible but it's a tossup at best.
Iowa is running Chuck Grassley, who is imensely popular there and won by 35 points in 2016, outperforming Trump by nearly 30. He's basically untouchable. Missouri is not flipping. Louisiana is not fucking flipping. These races are more likely to go for the GOP by 20 points than they are for Democrats to win. The GOP is more likely to flip Colorado than the Democrats are to flip Ohio or Missouri.
Redistricting will help the GOP more than the Democrats, probably net the GOP an extra one or two seats since the states that are gaining the most seats are Florida and Texas which have complete GOP control of redistricting. Redistricting won't be the bloodbath some of the doomsayers have predicted, but will still help the GOP a bit.
The TV is not saying Biden is the best thing since sliced bread. They annihilated him over Afghanistan and are starting to question his competence with the current failure over infrastructure and the Delta surge. There is no evidence of any clamping down on Facebook. Biden's approval rating is 5 points underwater because the TV is blasting him.
Furthermore, Democrats are defending seats in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. Those are far from sure things. The most likely scenario is the GOP ends up with like, 52 seats by holding the midwest and flipping a couple Sun Belt states. A good night for Democrats would be like, winning 52 seats by flipping the Midwest+NC and holding the Sun Belt. But the idea that the GOP isn't favored - even slightly - in the Senate is lunacy.
OH and PA have ZERO energy candidates on the GOP side. Democrats will easily win those races on high turnout due to high Democratic enthusiasm. Same with NC.
Missouri is not impossible. Roy Blunt won by less than 3% in 2016 when Trump won by 18.
Redistricting will HELP the Democrats overall. The extra seats in TX and FL and balanced out by other states that are using non-partisan redistricting committees for the first time. Dems will easily gain 5+ House seats between that and high turnout.
The media will help the Democrats out when it's election time. No worries there, the conservatives will laugh themselves out of the room as usual.
Nevada and Arizona are safe Dem wins, Nevada probably by double digits. Georgia favors Dems 60/40 odds, they probably win it by like 4.
What kind of dreamland do you live in to think Missouri will ever be Dem majority?
First of all, that's not my idea of a "dream", and second of all, they had a Dem Senator until 2019 😂
second of all, they had a Dem Senator until 2019 😂
You're forgetting how good Obama was for Dem senate during 2008 and 2012. He's the main reason many states that are pretty comfortably red by that point had senators hold out for a bit longer.
One senator. That doesn't mean the rest of the state isn't Republican majority. The STL-KC population is just 14% of the total state population.
I never said a Dem majority, I said the Dems might win a Senate election in the midterms.
GOP has no energy in OH or NC (incumbents are retiring in both), plus we've got the increased Dem enthusiasm plus mail in ballot factor.
AK is a wild west race at this point. Murkowski hasn't officially announced anything, and there's multiple people running against her.
If boomers listened to their tvs then Trump wouldn't have won the primary in 2016, nor the general election.
The attitude towards Trump during the 2016 primary was barely a fraction of what it was during Trump's presidency. Most liberals thought he was a joke and they "lost the plot". The narrative control is much tighter than it was back then, largely because they blame themselves for him winning.
Remember Trump only won like 30-35% of the GOP primary vote anyway, and he lost the 2016 general (plus Seniors abandoning him is a big reason why 2020 went poorly for Trump). I'd imagine the debate spectacle helped with that (no debates in Midterms).
I think we're underestimating how many chuds died off due to COVID. These last few months of deaths have been very heavily skewed towards the right wing antivax crowd, and I don't think that that can happen without repercussions on the election map.
Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated
Percentage of U.S. adults who would get vaccinated against COVID-19
Taken together, you can see that 70+% of Americans are already vaccinated, and the remainder is almost entirely people who are vaccine skeptical. At the beginning everyone was dying, but this second wave of deaths has been overwhelmingly among the antivax crowd.
:I-was-saying: I've been talking about boomer chud deaths for a hot minute! The metaphorical pile of boddies left behind by Covid will haunt my psyche until I die, but I'm truly jokerfied and excited to see just how badly chuds fucked themselves with this vaccine and virus denialism.
Such a great example of the dialectical relationship between ideology and material conditions. These fucking Q-pilled horse-paste munching lunatics have basically been killing themselves indirectly. Enough of them have died that they genuinely aren't as large of a material force in the world. Yes in terms of electoral voting, but also as agents of propogating their ideology the rest of the time too. How many conservative commentators have gotten murked by Corona? How many fewer low-mid level grifters are around to spew the hatred and propagandize for those ideas? How many people will be so traumatized by hermancainaward types that they reflexively distrust conservative rhetoric and are more amenable to leftist ideas? They don't seem to be stopping either, and they've almost guaranteed that Covid will be around for years to come. The virus might not get them this time, but what about the next variant that they refuse the vaccine for? This is a gift that is NOT done giving.
The chuds are maybe beyond saving - but if they materialize a gruesome enough quantity of their own death and suffering, they might just torpedo their own power.
Is it praxis to report liberals to the Feds once the Proud Boys are in charge of the FBI?
The blame will go to the progressives and the party will move farther right
Something can be funny and bad at the same time. In fact things that are funny in politics are almost exclusively also bad
