While @IHME_UW repeatedly underestimates covid deaths in the US, they are apparently now projecting over 600,000 new covid deaths in China over the next three months

https://covid19.healthdata.org/china?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

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    • Ghoucckyoou [none/use name]
      ·
      edit-2
      3 years ago

      Eh, I saw some photos from my fiances' daughter-in-law in Shanghai recently and there was no distancing in the line to get tested, literally just people getting a test because they had to... But by the time you get your results it's not helpful if you caught it while waiting for the test...

      They are pretty heavily locked down right now though so maybe it'll be stymied. The problem with zero-COVID is that none of the vaccines are neutralizing, so the only way to prevent cases from rising is with these restrictive lockdowns, but as long as they can swing it economically and are taking care of people there's not a problem. It's just hard to lock down in a way that preemptively keeps it from spreading to aged populations - which is really the place where measurable fatalities occur. The vast majority of people can catch it and not be severely affected. Most of the rest would survive if vaccinated, which seems to be pretty widespread in PRC.

      • The_Jewish_Cuban [he/him]
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        3 years ago

        Was it family groups that maybe weren't distancing or was everyone just crammed together?