"Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest polls across six US swing states find Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in all six states, with leads ranging from 1% in North Carolina to 12% in Michigan. Relative to our results in June, Donald Trump has narrowed the gap in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but has fallen further behind in Arizona, Florida, and Michigan. In Wisconsin, Biden’s 10% lead has remained relatively stable since our first swing state voting intention in May.
Enthusiasm Gap
Despite the leads that Joe Biden holds over Donald Trump, Trump’s likely voters express a greater enthusiasm for voting for their preferred candidate. 54% to 67% of likely Trump voters say they are very enthusiastic (a 3 out of 3 on a scale of enthusiasm) about voting for Trump. Meanwhile, 40% to 49% of likely Biden voters say they have that level of enthusiasm for voting for Biden.
Moreover, across all states, likely Trump voters are significantly more likely to say they are primarily voting for Donald Trump because they support Donald Trump (rather than because they oppose Joe Biden), while a majority of likely Biden voters say the primary reason they plan to vote for Biden is that they oppose Donald Trump (rather than because they support Biden).
Voting In-Person and Mail-In Votes
This gap in enthusiasm presents itself, most interestingly, in the willingness of Trump voters to vote in-person on election day. When asked how comfortable they would be voting in person on election day (on scale of 0 to 5), between 36% and 44% of likely Trump voters say they are ‘very comfortable’ (5 out of 5) voting in-person on election day. Meanwhile, only 9% to 15% of likely Biden voters express the same degree of comfort with voting in person in November.
In fact, when asked by what means they are most likely to vote in the Presidential Election, likely Biden voters overwhelmingly said they will be voting by mail, with North Carolina the lone exception. Likely Trump voters, meanwhile, were significantly more likely to say they would be voting in-person. Evidence of this difference is visible in states where absentee ballots have already been requested.
The implications of this difference cannot be understated. In effect, in some states, election day will see a significant turnout of voters for Donald Trump. Among those voting in-person on election day, Donald Trump wins overwhelmingly in all six swing states.
Meanwhile, among those voting by mail, Joe Biden is the clear winner in all six states.
Of course, this difference may change well before Election Day, depending on the coronavirus situation. Note, for instance, that in Arizona, which is presently undergoing a significant uptick in cases, more than half of likely Trump voters also say they will be voting by mail. In this sense, the greater expression of comfort among likely Trump voters and greater degree of caution among likely Biden voters about voting in-person could simply be a difference in pessimism or optimism about what the coronavirus situation will look like in early November.
Indeed, in all six states, likely Biden voters mostly believe that ‘the worst is yet to come’ with respect to the coronavirus pandemic, whereas likely Trump voters tend to believe that ‘the worst is behind us.’
Therefore, if the coronavirus ameliorates, we could see many more likely Biden voters saying they will be comfortable voting in person, whereas if the situation deteriorates, more likely Trump voters could then say they will vote by mail. However, this outlook could remain the same, given that many likely Trump voters live in rural areas where there has been less spread of the virus due to network effects.
Nevertheless, our results as currently configured present a potential logistical nightmare, reminiscent of the Iowa Democratic Primary in February. If some states see more than half of their voters voting by mail, the United States Postal Service will be under significant strain. Absentee ballots are valid as long as they are post-marked on or before Election Day, meaning that many votes could still be in transit on Election Day and will be counted in the days that follow. This delay could potentially change a result in the days that follow the election, given the vast difference between likely Biden voters and likely Trump voters in how they plan to vote. According to CBS, about 73,000 out of 33 million mail-in ballots arrived too late to be counted in 2016. With this election likely to see many more mail-in votes, such logistical hurdles could mean that the result of the election could be uncertain for several days (and even weeks, as seen in the New York Primary) following Election Day."
If there is a gap on the day between in person and mail votes, Trump is 100% calling fraud, and not leaving. His stunt with "delay the election" now is going to help him convince libs that the civil thing to do is keep him forever.