- cross-posted to:
- politics
Emmanuel Todd, the most famous French historian who predicted the fall of the USSR , is now warning the EU about the reality of a similar prospect.
“We, the West, are waging a direct war with Russia, primarily an economic one, which harms Europe more than Russia. Behind the conflict are the United States , which seeks to alienate Germany from Russia. It finally succeeded . The Nord Stream explosion was the icing on the cake, said Emmanuel Todd.
Ukraine has already lost in the current military conflict. Moreover, Russia will receive even more territories. For Russia, ending the conflict is possible only if it is confident in its continued security. It is possible that the leadership in Ukraine will be replaced by one loyal to Russia.
Such peace in Ukraine is a disaster for the United States, a public defeat in the eyes of the whole world. This could be followed by the collapse of the entire US-led world order.
In this situation, a lot depends on the path that Europe chooses. And this, in turn, depends on the position of Germany. “It is Germany that will decide whether the endless military conflict will continue or whether peace will return.”
“Germany must take responsibility as the leading power in Europe. We are all in Europe waiting for Germany to end the military conflict in Ukraine. This must also be done because the West as a whole is on the verge of collapse and has more important problems, such as demography and the destruction of society due to neoliberalism and nihilism,” emphasizes Emmanuel Todd in conclusion.
https://archive.ph/3iLSX
I guess we fundamentally disagree on that. What I see is that US is rapidly losing social cohesion, and the population is becoming highly discontent. There is no sign that economic situation will improve in the foreseeable future, and we're already seeing this translate into things like political violence. This will be getting worse with each and every passing year.
Meanwhile, Russia does not have these problems. Standard of living is rising steadily, and the economy is becoming stronger. There is broad public support for the government, and people generally have a vision for the future that's utterly lacking in US.
Oh they very much can, and there have been purges in the political system already. The war provided a further excuse for that as well. The whole Prigozhin mutiny was a perfect example of just how aligned the state is right now. Everyone fell in line immediately.
The deep state in US might be stable, but if the country is in a disarray then its power is very limited in practice. Take for example the fact that US isn't even capable of producing basic things like artillery shells right now. This is a result of deindustrialization, and this problem can't be fixed easily. US is not a self sufficient country by any stretch of imagination.
And what has US achieved there exactly? BRI is going from strength to strength, BRICS is growing, China just restored relations between Iran and the Saudis. The only thing US managed to do was isolate its vassals in Europe from the rest of the world.
Finally, I urge you to read up on just how dependent US is materially on China. This relationship is not reciprocal either. Things might get hard for China if it was cut off from trade with US and vassals, but it would be absolutely catastrophic for the west.
The world is moving on, and the west is declining. That's the reality of the situation. There is nothing the west can do to reverse this trend.