A lot of people go into science because they genuinely enjoy doing research. They are realizing the implications of their research, and that is scaring them. I don't think this is a big mystery or conspiracy by the scientific community. These people aren't part of the decision making process, and as you pointed out, if they start saying things that are too radical for liberals then they're just going to be cancelled. So, they speak out tepidly hoping that will make some difference.
It's also worth noting that this research is also happening outside the west. There appears to be a global consensus on the broad problems resulting from climate change. For example, I haven't seen scientists from China saying anything radically different on the subject.
A lot of people go into science because they genuinely enjoy doing research.
Definitely. Those are the people sitting in the labs crunching numbers. But you also can't deny that as time goes by many lose the spark. I'm not blaming the individuals, that's just how the science-industrial complex gets them. To continue the research, they need grants, to get grants they need to publish and publish results. This is why there's a reproducibility crisis in science. I'm sure many people become cops for "good" reasons too, but the system doesn't allow you to be a good cop.
they speak out tepidly hoping that will make some difference.
Why can't I call them out for it without being called a climate change denier?
Science gave us: asylums/prisons for the "insane", lobotomies, anti-women diagnoses like "hysteria", phrenology and other racial science, and the list goes on. So yeah, scientists need to do way more than say "The science is settled!" to (re)gain people's trust.
There appears to be a global consensus on the broad problems resulting from climate change.
Nobody denies that. But there's a difference between saying "problems resulting from climate change" and "THE CLIMATE IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE IN THE NEXT 75 YEARS AND WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!"
Why can't I believe there will be problems but not believe that the world will end?
The biggest effect one can see is the migration from the global south where droughts and warmth are destroying crops. Many places on the planet are becoming and will become very challenging to live in. This is why The West is building a wall around the global south. But again, this is rarely discussed in favour of "climate collapse" and "the temperature is gonna go up by 2°C", both vague, unactionable statements.
Why can’t I call them out for it without being called a climate change denier?
I think that's a very valid call out actually. And I've already agreed that they fail to articulate any tangible action to address the problem. This is precisely what we should be focusing on in my opinion. If things are as bad as the scientists say they are, then we need to start talking about real tangible solutions which involve moving away from capitalism and growth oriented economy.
I don't think the world is going to end either, but thing is that we're in uncharted territory. Nobody knows how bad things will get, but there are a lot of reasons to believe t hat there will be very serious disasters. In fact, we're already seeing them happening each and every year on a phenomenal scale.
I think you're completely correct that food supply will likely be one of the major problems going forward, and that will cause mass migrations and wars as people fight over remaining habitable areas of the planet. This will also lead to a break down of global supply chains, and that's going to be a very bad news for western countries that have become largely deindustrialized.
Also worth noting that it's absolutely not a given that things will be better in western countries than in the global south. The global south is already close to peak global temperature, so there isn't going to be a huge amount of fluctuation. However, it's the cooler climates that have to deal with higher temperature gradients, and that's what tends to cause a lot of the disasters. This can already be seen with massive forest fires across US and Canada in the past couple of years.
If things are as bad as the scientists say they are, then we need to start talking about real tangible solutions which involve moving away from capitalism and growth oriented economy.
Exactly. When I ask "Why should I believe them?" I don't mean they're lying, I mean what have they done to make me believe what they are saying is true? Calling me a science denier is not enough. You brought up China. China is doing everything the West says they want to do without the alarmism. So it makes me think the alarmism is simply political performance.
there are a lot of reasons to believe t hat there will be very serious disasters
Yes. I'm originally from the Mediterranean region, every year there's been a growing amount of forest fires. Where I live (West/North Europe) has been getting "Mediterranean" summers with random shit like 2ft of snow in April. I'm not blind to the problems. But I'm also not blind to the fact Earth has been here for billions of years, and supported life for hundreds of millions of years. I'm not arrogant enough to think that the world will end if I buy a plastic bag.
And that's the crux of the issue for me. They focus on "emissions" and "atmospheric temperatures" (directly affected by emissions), so what it does is just prevent investment in "non-green" energy which translates to keeping the "developing world" underdeveloped. Don't quote me on this, but I think the US has greatly reduced how much they invest in "non-green" energy so underdeveloped countries in Africa are shit out of luck.
it’s the cooler climates that have to deal with higher temperature gradients, and that’s what tends to cause a lot of the disasters
Yup. Cause the changes in temperature are so great. If the temperature of the sea goes up a few degrees, coral dies. I've seen the white coral with my own eyes. I've dived and seen fields of dead coral that stretches for kilometers.
I just don't think the scientists who wrote that open letter are genuine. That's it. And usually I have a good sense for that sort of thing.
So it makes me think the alarmism is simply political performance.
I very much agree with you that the discussion in the west is largely performative. We can see it with stuff like tariffs on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and so on as well. Clearly western governments see economic warfare as being more important than addressing the climate crisis. We also see resistance towards practical solutions like nuclear power. Germany is a perfect example where they dismantled nuclear industry and now use coal instead. The fact that China is pushing the transition without the panic is a strong indicator that they believe that it's possible to navigate the crisis without our civilization collapsing.
It is worth noting though that even though life has navigated many challenges, extinctions do happen. And life forms absolutely can bring about their own demise as seen with the Great Oxidation Event. If our activity is changing the climate at a rate that complex organisms aren't able to adapt to, then we could trigger an extinction event as well. It's going to be little consolation to us that life will continue on in a different form afterwards.
That said, you are absolutely correct that the west is using the climate crisis as a political vehicle to justify why the rest of the world can't develop the way the west did. This very much needs to be called out. What we really should be saying is that the west carries the most responsibility for the crisis historically, and people living in the west are consuming disproportionate amount of energy today. So, the west needs to own majority of the responsibility.
Regarding the paper, I think there is some evidence that AMOC collapse could happen, and it will be bad news for Europe. That, of course, doesn't mean the paper isn't politically motivated.
It is worth noting though that even though life has navigated many challenges, extinctions do happen.
It's also worth nothing we're already in an extinction event, and our planet has only had something like four prior major extinction events in its history
A lot of people go into science because they genuinely enjoy doing research. They are realizing the implications of their research, and that is scaring them. I don't think this is a big mystery or conspiracy by the scientific community. These people aren't part of the decision making process, and as you pointed out, if they start saying things that are too radical for liberals then they're just going to be cancelled. So, they speak out tepidly hoping that will make some difference.
It's also worth noting that this research is also happening outside the west. There appears to be a global consensus on the broad problems resulting from climate change. For example, I haven't seen scientists from China saying anything radically different on the subject.
Definitely. Those are the people sitting in the labs crunching numbers. But you also can't deny that as time goes by many lose the spark. I'm not blaming the individuals, that's just how the science-industrial complex gets them. To continue the research, they need grants, to get grants they need to publish and publish results. This is why there's a reproducibility crisis in science. I'm sure many people become cops for "good" reasons too, but the system doesn't allow you to be a good cop.
Why can't I call them out for it without being called a climate change denier?
Science gave us: asylums/prisons for the "insane", lobotomies, anti-women diagnoses like "hysteria", phrenology and other racial science, and the list goes on. So yeah, scientists need to do way more than say "The science is settled!" to (re)gain people's trust.
Nobody denies that. But there's a difference between saying "problems resulting from climate change" and "THE CLIMATE IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE IN THE NEXT 75 YEARS AND WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!"
Why can't I believe there will be problems but not believe that the world will end?
The biggest effect one can see is the migration from the global south where droughts and warmth are destroying crops. Many places on the planet are becoming and will become very challenging to live in. This is why The West is building a wall around the global south. But again, this is rarely discussed in favour of "climate collapse" and "the temperature is gonna go up by 2°C", both vague, unactionable statements.
I think that's a very valid call out actually. And I've already agreed that they fail to articulate any tangible action to address the problem. This is precisely what we should be focusing on in my opinion. If things are as bad as the scientists say they are, then we need to start talking about real tangible solutions which involve moving away from capitalism and growth oriented economy.
I don't think the world is going to end either, but thing is that we're in uncharted territory. Nobody knows how bad things will get, but there are a lot of reasons to believe t hat there will be very serious disasters. In fact, we're already seeing them happening each and every year on a phenomenal scale.
I think you're completely correct that food supply will likely be one of the major problems going forward, and that will cause mass migrations and wars as people fight over remaining habitable areas of the planet. This will also lead to a break down of global supply chains, and that's going to be a very bad news for western countries that have become largely deindustrialized.
Also worth noting that it's absolutely not a given that things will be better in western countries than in the global south. The global south is already close to peak global temperature, so there isn't going to be a huge amount of fluctuation. However, it's the cooler climates that have to deal with higher temperature gradients, and that's what tends to cause a lot of the disasters. This can already be seen with massive forest fires across US and Canada in the past couple of years.
Exactly. When I ask "Why should I believe them?" I don't mean they're lying, I mean what have they done to make me believe what they are saying is true? Calling me a science denier is not enough. You brought up China. China is doing everything the West says they want to do without the alarmism. So it makes me think the alarmism is simply political performance.
Yes. I'm originally from the Mediterranean region, every year there's been a growing amount of forest fires. Where I live (West/North Europe) has been getting "Mediterranean" summers with random shit like 2ft of snow in April. I'm not blind to the problems. But I'm also not blind to the fact Earth has been here for billions of years, and supported life for hundreds of millions of years. I'm not arrogant enough to think that the world will end if I buy a plastic bag.
And that's the crux of the issue for me. They focus on "emissions" and "atmospheric temperatures" (directly affected by emissions), so what it does is just prevent investment in "non-green" energy which translates to keeping the "developing world" underdeveloped. Don't quote me on this, but I think the US has greatly reduced how much they invest in "non-green" energy so underdeveloped countries in Africa are shit out of luck.
Yup. Cause the changes in temperature are so great. If the temperature of the sea goes up a few degrees, coral dies. I've seen the white coral with my own eyes. I've dived and seen fields of dead coral that stretches for kilometers.
I just don't think the scientists who wrote that open letter are genuine. That's it. And usually I have a good sense for that sort of thing.
I very much agree with you that the discussion in the west is largely performative. We can see it with stuff like tariffs on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and so on as well. Clearly western governments see economic warfare as being more important than addressing the climate crisis. We also see resistance towards practical solutions like nuclear power. Germany is a perfect example where they dismantled nuclear industry and now use coal instead. The fact that China is pushing the transition without the panic is a strong indicator that they believe that it's possible to navigate the crisis without our civilization collapsing.
It is worth noting though that even though life has navigated many challenges, extinctions do happen. And life forms absolutely can bring about their own demise as seen with the Great Oxidation Event. If our activity is changing the climate at a rate that complex organisms aren't able to adapt to, then we could trigger an extinction event as well. It's going to be little consolation to us that life will continue on in a different form afterwards.
That said, you are absolutely correct that the west is using the climate crisis as a political vehicle to justify why the rest of the world can't develop the way the west did. This very much needs to be called out. What we really should be saying is that the west carries the most responsibility for the crisis historically, and people living in the west are consuming disproportionate amount of energy today. So, the west needs to own majority of the responsibility.
Regarding the paper, I think there is some evidence that AMOC collapse could happen, and it will be bad news for Europe. That, of course, doesn't mean the paper isn't politically motivated.
It's also worth nothing we're already in an extinction event, and our planet has only had something like four prior major extinction events in its history
Indeed, we shouldn't kid ourselves that this will all just blow over.