Permanently Deleted
I posted this to FB and already got a response with the technical/legal response. In this case, the House GOP chooses the president, which would either be Trump or they could throw him under the bus and choose someone else. And if the Democrats win the Senate, they would get to choose the Vice President. It would be a shit-show. Although in this case, maybe Dems wouldn't win the senate, so it would just be a shit show for Democrats.
So it's not the reps that vote? It's the individual state houses that vote?
What a shitshow
Oh the examples show its an even dumber process than I expected
FFS America join the rest of the world with basic election rules
Critical support for a three-legged sack race between Trump/Pence and Biden/Harris.
No chance in hell Biden gets Arizona but not Ohio Pennsylvania or Florida
PA was only two points off in 2016, and polling there this time has been very consistent around 6 points Biden.
If there are two states to watch out for, it's AZ (the state that has voted GOP for 16 out of the last 17 elections) and Wisconsin, where polling was off in 2016 by EIGHT points. And to make it worse, polling in WI has been wild again this year.
This is my nightmare map: https://imgur.com/a/YvrW0R6
That toss-up in NE-2 is a recount that stretches into December, before going Biden. But at 269-269, Mike Pence is the next President.
Enjoyable hellworld you got there, but I think having most of the rust belt swing blue would have flipped one more state at least. I know this because I am secretly the graph wizard Nathanilus Argentum.
Maine being 50/50 is definitely not happening. It has 4 delegates that go proportionally, and Maine is looking very blue this time. It awards 2 for popular vote, which Biden will get, then the other two for the winner of the two congressional districts, which will be at least 50/50. So Biden will get 3 delegates, or 4, if his win is distributed evenly across the state.
EDIT: I'm not sure if the prediction above is counting on 2/4 or 3/4 delegates though. If its counting on 3, maybe its in line.
Oh, so the only state result thats not the same as what the betting odds are predicting already is Biden losing Pennsylvania? Terrifying. https://www.predictit.org/
I would say Biden winning Arizona and Trump winning Pennsylvania probably won’t happen.
trump is pretty likely to win pennsylvania. in 2016 polls had hillary up by like ten points.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html
Hillary was up 2 points, you're probably thinking of Wisconsin where she was up 6-7.
Less than 4, so splitting the difference is a margin of less than 3. So a similar polling error to 2016 still has Biden winning PA, while a similar polling error in WI means it goes to Trump again.
What am I missing? Taking 538's margin and adding in the polling error is 4.4% in Trump's favor. Current polling margin in PA is 5.1 so the same error still has Biden winning.
Idk if anything is too crazy to happen but their are some conflicting picks. Like Biden wins arizona but not florida? If he's ahead enough for arizona he will definitely be getting some of the closer states