Earlier I was in a thread talking about the possibility of a Civil War and what that could look like. I wanted to expand more on it, especially on what I believe the factions will look like from a materialist perspective.
Understanding the different players, their material interests and the contradictions between them is imperative to really understand what a conflict could look like. I can tell you right now, it isn't going to be what you've dreamt of. The left isn't organized or armed in any serious capacity and the state could crush any leftist uprising immediately if it took the gloves off. If we have any role to play, it will be as a secondary partner in a temporary United Front led by people we hate. Unfortunately, I don't think it will bring the revolution, but might position us better for when it does happen.
Class Factions:
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Cosmopolitan/Haute Bourgeoisie: This is a faction of Capital that is physically concentrated in the cities. These are international capitalists that extract profits not only from the domestic population, but primarily from abroad. Most of these people are the definition of Imperialists. Those of them that do make most of their profits domestically, generally don't produce anything physical, but rather provide services or intangible products (software, movies, insurance etc). They are represented by what used to be the "Washington Consensus", a coalition of Democrats and "Moderate" republicans with focus on global free trade, the financialization of production and capital, and maintaining the supremacy of the US-dominated International Market. Neocons and Neoliberals.
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Provincial/National Bourgeoisie: This is a faction of Capital that is mostly, though not entirely rural/suburban. They generally extract profits from a domestic population, though of course there are always exceptions. They're made up of Heavy Industry like Construction, Logistics, Resource Extraction, Agribusiness etc, as well as Small Capital (who I will detail). They have seen a lot of their profits eroded away by free trade deals, high domestic wages, environmental regulations, debt to international banks, and the overall financialization of the economy. To some of these capitalists, public policy can be an existential threat to their business. There were logging communities in WA that were completely destroyed due to regulations protecting the spotted owl, for instance. These people feel aggrieved by the way the economy is going and despite being literally bourgeois themselves, they see coastal liberals as the real elites (which is kind of true tbh). This faction is represented by the GOP, more specifically the more right wing segments. Trump is their god. I genuinely think Roger Stone designed Trump's political persona to cater to these people directly.
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Small Capital: Part of the National Bourgeoisie. Anyone from used boat dealership owners to guys that own a regional trucking company with 100 drivers etc. Regulations hit them harder than big companies since they don't have as big a pool of profits to absorb the effects. These people have also lost out in free trade agreements and have especially been hit hard by financialization of the economy as they don't have access to massive chunks of capital. Companies like Amazon have been bleeding these people dry for years and covid has basically been a nuke right into their livelihood.
Armed Groups (state and non-state):
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Pigs: local cops are generally loyal to their local government which is loyal to the local bourgeoisie, which tends to be Small Capital or National Bourgeoisie. Big city cops are kind of an anomaly. They are usually big enough and large enough to almost feel like their own independent army. They don't care as much what the local government says, even if they do work for them. Lots of big city politicians are terrified of their police force.
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FBI/ATF/NSA/CIA: there are factions within but generally the FBI upholds the interests of the Haute Bourgeoisie. This is why libs love them and chuds think they're deep state globalists. They don't like Right Wing Extremists any more than they like leftists, but they don't go after them as much because they actually have establishment support from the NB and other law enforcement. These people would never see themselves as "loyal to the president", only to "America", which really means the Haute Bougie.
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DHS/US Marshalls/other feds: a lot of federal law enforcement agencies are basically loyal to the president, but are especially loyal to Trump. There are tens of thousands of these people that will listen to Trump no matter what.
-The Military: the military is a mixed bag and also the scariest player in the who situation. They have nukes, drones, warplanes, bombs etc and could literally kill the whole planet if they wanted to. Soldiers are generally loyal to their commanding officers, though a lot of them are diehard chuds who probably believe in Qanon. The officers generally support the Haute Bourgeoisie, especially those who have served under multiple presidents, but there are always fascists embedded in the military in every country. They think they're apolitical but really they're just nonpartisan. I think if a boog was to kick off, there would be a schism in the military.
Okay, so that was a lot, but I think understanding the players is more important than how things will come together when the time comes. It can give an understanding of how different groups might act and where their loyalties might lay. Personally, I think there will be a big shitshow surrounding the elections next week, and and even bigger one in 4 years. No matter who wins, chuds will spend all their disposable income on guns and ammo over the next 4 years, and I think whoever is elected will try to purge key government institutions of their opposition. Trump did this with the judiciary but I think we will see it in the Military and federal law enforcement. Trump has said he will purge the FBI, DOD, CIA and NSA if he gets reelected. Biden would probably purge DHS, replacing purged officials with neocon republicans to show they're not partisan purges lol.
I don't know what will set off a civil war but it is at its core going to be a conflict between the Haute Bourgeoisie, which generally has power over the economy and the "deep state" in government and military, and the National Bourgeoisie, which has roving bands of loyal chuds, basically all local and state cops, DHS and probably a lot of rank-and-file military and some potential renegade military officers when the time comes.
At some point, something will set everything off, possibly a stolen election or failing to steal an election. Something like the nightmare scenarios of the upcoming election might happen in 2024, such as the supreme court deciding the election or one party refusing to accept the results and states trying to secede. This is going to sound really unlikely and kinda out there, but I think we could genuinely see clashes between branches of law enforcement. This happened a few times at the end of the USSR where cops and KGB or cops from a different town would have legit firefights with each other. It's hard to think of a scenario that would lead to this, but it could happen. Pulling it out of my ass but perhaps there are major left wing riots in DC and the DHS and cops begin to fire on them and the military is called in but they decide to defend the people. This would probably result in defections from the military as some people feel they are trying to coup the right wing govt or that the military is controlled by the deep state or whatever. The cops and feds would probably be enraged. Probably a lot of them would quit and join RW militias. We really have no idea, I just want to highlight the fact that there are different armed factions in the State that support different factions of the bourgeoisie, and if this really gets serious they will likely go after each other.
Where do we fit in? If there is a civil war, it will probably be one of terror attacks, that escalate to armed street skirmishes, occupying govt buildings and eventually even taking territory. It is not going to be the revolution. Proles will be terrified and will just want things to go back to normal. If the war gets really intense, the one way we could use it to our advantage, as much as i fucking hate to say it, is to enter into a United Front with the lib bourgeoisie. There is no way they would let us have any actual governmental power, but they could possibly allow us to be something akin to the Partisans in WWII or one of the left wing factions in the Spanish Civil War. They could provide us with some resources to wage guerilla warfare on chuds, especially if they begin occupying territory. I only think this would be allowed if things were really fucking bad. Libs do NOT like us, and hate the idea of letting us be armed but they might do it out of desperation. If this happens, it will be our number two priority (after smoking chuds) to spread positive propaganda about ourselves as brave resistance fighters, again painting ourselves as the modern day Partisans. Communists were extremely popular in liberated countries after WWII because they were seen as freedom fighters. At the end, no matter who wins, we should hide all weapons. All of this is hypothetical but we really need to brace for something wild like this, because it's looking likely. Maybe we can get something out of it but we certainly aren't going to seize power :deeper-sadness:
Pigs: local cops are generally loyal to their local government which is loyal to the local bourgeoisie, which tends to be Small Capital or National Bourgeoisie. Big city cops are kind of an anomaly. They don’t care as much what the local government says, even if they do work for them. Lots of big city politicians are terrified of their police force.
There is a clear reason for this. The vast majority of city cops do not live in or identify with the communities they police. Their prevailing wages, strong unions, benefits and pensions afford them the ability to live in the suburban and rural "National Bourgeois" territories as homeowners making significant incomes and enjoying profound economic stability. These city cops identify with the suburban and rural Petite Bourgeoisie. They live with them, engage in the same social activities and hobbies, fill their three car garages with the same overpriced pickup trucks and send their kids to the same schools.
They work in the cities as an occupying force. They hate the people there just as much as they hate the civilian leadership they elect. In their minds, the poverty and crime which takes place in these cities is a product of the culture and of the people who live in them, not a product of the economic conditions or social relations under late capitalism. They are much happier identifying with the landscaping business owner across the street or the corporate manager next door than they are with the lumpenproletariat. These cops may not share the same relations to the means of production that the bourgeois do, but their income levels and status as landowners reduces this distinction to pedantic theoretical nuance.
This. American cops aren't workers or capitalists, they're an independent class of professional killers.
Note: the term National Bourgeoisie usually refers to the Bourgeois faction in a colonized nation made up of native people that is oppressed by Colonialism/Imperialism. That's not exactly applicable because this is the imperial core, but their relations to production are very similar with our provincial bourgeoisie so I used it. In a colonial context the National Bourgeoisie is progressive, while in a settler colonial state they're reactionary.
Excellent post. Although, I would like to add the following : an hypothetical civil war would be completely different if it happens in 2020, or in 2024, or in between; and it'll be because of the proportion of socialists in it. The latter a war will occur, the more radicalized, desperate, prepared and numerous socialists will be; and conversely, the earlier the war, the more likely socialists will be to end up in an united front. It is also necessary to highlight the following : if a "legitimate" (whatever that fucking means now lmao) winner emerges from a presidential election, there might be more pigs/troops supporting said winner. AKA, the "moderates" and "apoliticals" who just want to grill. As you said, a lot of states and their personnel are loyal only to themselves and/or their respective bourgeoisie; national bourgeoisie might be stronger in the deep south than say, in NYC or California.
Needless to say, the old saying "may you live in interesting times" is pretty much going to be the 20s. One can only speculate how bad it will be, but only morons and hypocrites say everything is going to be fine at this point.
Incredible. It could happen here. No one thought Syria would shatter. Thankfully, Assad is picking up the pieces. Inshallah Idlib will be ours.
Robert Evans saw it back in 2016, and now everyone is talking about it. We’ll know soon enough whether it comes earlier than he expected.
I have thought about this a lot actually. It almost seems like we should support Industrial Capital, and if we were in a colonized state we would do that, but in our context the Industrial Capitalists are always more reactionary. There is always a choice when it comes to concessions to labor. The choice is concede or violently repress. In liberal societies and societies without the capacity for mass repression, they usually give concessions to placate the workers. The Industrial Capitalists have clearly given up all pretenses of believing in Liberalism and they absolutely have the capacity to repress the population. I think if there was a civil war, and the Industrial Capitalists win, they will commit genocide. They will kill all of us, and large groups of minorities.
If the Cosmopolitan Bourgeoisie wins out, the US will absolutely begin a decline as countries on the periphery revolt while we are preoccupied. It will be a feedback loop of we are weak, GS country frees itself from us, we get weaker, a GS country revolts etc. That will be a turbulent time but if we manage to survive a civil war intact and in good standing with the population, we would be in a good place to really fight for Revolution.
Trump is 100% an agent of industrial capitalism. I said above that I think Roger Stone created Trumps political persona specifically to cater to these people. People like that know exactly what ruling class factions are and how they're feeling.
I think Biden is definitely trying to pretend he will be basically just Trump but not erratic and openly racist. In reality his administration will govern like Bill Clinton's. I don't know who the accelerationist candidate is tbh. It really is just decline all around.
This is uncool and bad, but I’m not sure what incentive they would have other than being the more reactionary faction. After all, industrial capital needs to maintain consumption, as they still rely on the production of goods, rather than the fincap mysticism of making money out of money and using the hegemony of the dollar. If the industrial capitalist chud faction kills too many of the proletariat, who will be left to purchase consume goods?
It's true that they need consumers to purchase goods but there are always ways to figure that out. For instance one person with a lot of money can consume as much as 3 people. Whenever there is genocide or mass sitter, the victims property is usually distributed to someone. Also, increased exports can offset declines in domestic consumer demand. This would be a boon to logistics companies, which are typically part of the Industrial Capital faction.
Basically yes. Best thing we could hope to come out of a civil war is an organized Left Wing Guerrilla force emerging from the conflict in good standing with the people, under a severely weakened liberal bourgeois state. We could hypothetically be enough of a force to ensure representation in the Bourgeois government. I think if the bouge forms a United Front with us we need to work very hard to be seen as the ones who would do the hard stuff that the government was unwilling to.
I'm too tired to engage intelligently with this awesome write up but I just want to say: very informative, chilling, and eye opening. Well done.
Thanks for this, esp. going to the roots of the factions, which has me seeing the city/rural/suburban divide and cultural trends/movements in a new light. I also have a new appreciation for "deep state" now, because the emergence of the factions loyal to the haute bourgeoisie into open conflict is going to look exactly like a hidden government coming to light, and it's going to be like prophecy coming true for chuds. Whatever propagandist started passing it around really knew what they were doing. It also lines up with the feeling I've had that whatever's coming next is big, but not The Final Battle.
Question: where does imperialist war fit in all this? Could a new war postpone this conflict? Precipitate it? End it?
Imperialist war could play a part, but I really don't know. The Haute Bourgeoisie needs imperial expansion to sustain itself in a way the NatBouge doesn't. Both of them like it but only one needs it. The preferred method of imperial expansion is via covert ops like color revolutions but those are failing. I legitimately think Biden is more likely to go to war abroad than Trump, and if he tried to I think the GOP and the NatBouge would oppose it. An imperial war could benefit some if the NatBouge like the Oil & Gas guys and some manufacturers but will do nothing for most segments. I don't think Imperialist War would prevent a civil war tbh, I think it might even accelerate one. I think the real ghouls that do the real work for Biden would know this and try to avoid it. I think imperialism isn't going to involve US boots on the ground anymore. More like funding and arming one country to invade another for us (Brazil against Venezuela/Bolivia for instance).
Yeah, it's clear now. Trump's admin making absurd deregulations in industries, tariffs, attacking NAFTA, offering up national land left and right, mostly performative international belligerence and short-lived coups, going after Google now... all of it made to order for the NatBouge. Getting a new, full-blown country on country war going is much harder with a schism that deep.
Tbh if Trump wasn't encouraging fascists and cringe reactionary policies I'd support him. Like if he was just attacking FinCap and not inciting genocidal ideology lol.
Yeah though, I can't really see any war being a consensus builder like it t would've been 15 years ago.
This is really interesting. Do you see most of the groups of the classic military-industrial complex as being nat-bourgeoisie or haute? I.e weapons manufacture, private security, oil, gas, minerals, reconstruction companies.
I’ve always thought of these groups as being republican/Nat-bouge. But not sure if this fits with Trump and inward looking industry in your analysis? They would surely be very interested in expansionist policy?
It's funny, growing up in MD, you get a lot of exposure to MIC folks. A lot of my friends' parents were low to mid level defense industry ghouls. The top levels of those industries are firmly Haute Bourgeoisie faction. They are all neocons and Clintonite neolibs. Firms providing security or mercenaries are all chuds though. They desperately want a fascist takeover, they'd do great.
Oil & Gas is the one industry in the NatBouge that I think is the least monolithic. They have a lot of neocons and make lots of money extracting resources abroad. This dynamic is similar to big tech and the haute bourgeoisie. They flirt with the nationalist right but are generally liberal elites. These groups could end up betraying the factions they align with initially. They will probably jump ship when the writing is on the wall.
great post man, im super into the lore now, so what role do you think canada and mexico will play in this civil war, i think canada would support the haute bourgeoisie with supplies and volunteers, i think Mexico is gonna use its national guard to arm the northern border and if Amlo wants he could probably seize the Border area were the Chicanos are mayority with little resistance and most important as a political plot to make sure Morena becomes the dominant political party in mexico after his presidency.
also cuba :fidel-salute: could become a wild card during the civil war, it could go non-agressive and just take over guantanamo and just that, or the most interesting it could follow its cold war dontrine and finance left-leaning groups with supplies, arms and volunteers not to have a communist US but to des-stabilize the USA to make the embargo on itself and venezuala practically useless
if only the admins could give us A maps, flags and worldbuilding comm to talk more about this event
I think you're generally right. Idk if Cuba would be able to afford to fund us though. I think they would remain officially neutral and attempt to seize Gitmo. I don't think Mexico would seize territory, but they probably would send troops to the border considering it would be a warzone and also there will be people fleeing into Mexico.
the Cuba situation its not about the founding of a Communist US but the attend to form a Fifth column inside the winning side of the Civil war, for Cuba the winner should be the FinCapital because even if they are the responsible for the embargo and the death of the USSR they are also the most unstable by a lot, Industrial capital is stable and can survive for much longer than fincap like you said in your post, also cuba cant really affort to be neutral since a form of intervention into the US would give Cuba the breathing room it need since the fall of the USSR by giving cuba influence in the surviving USA
as for Mexico, the president had a bad covid-19 response and hasnt deliver on his promises of anti-corruption, but want he has that previous presidents didnt before is an Unstable USA and a Stable Mexico, never has this happen before always either the US is strong and able to defend itself or Mexico is weak to bully them, but now Mexico is OK and most importantly Amlo has his National guard, before him they didnt exist instead we had the federal police, but the National guard is a part of the Mexican Army thats always ready to deploy and its always combat ready.
if Amlo wants a better rating with the country he could Occupy the south of the US, im not talking about All of california or texas, just the Border line, look at this map the occupation would be the deep red areas, (southwest tejas, a little of south arizona and new mexico, and maybe a bit of south california) this is mostly to make a "Peace zone" for the refugees since Mexico could not really take milions of posible refugee inside its territory, this Zone would be for the peope escaping the violence and some may be sent to mexico but this Zone could latter be annex into the country as a form of Nationalism, with this the popularity of the president would be through the roof with probably Lazaro Cardenas level of fame for returning a part of the lost territory, with this Morena would probaly be the Party in control of Mexico for decates to come
That's an interesting point about Cuba, I've never thought of it. As for Mexico, I think the risk-reward is high af. Like if they occupy that land and then the subsequent US government decides to go to war to have it returned, then Mexico is fucked. Even with an economically devastated US, there military hardware is still here and the population is still way bigger. I don't really know what AMLO would do but it would be a ballsy choice of he pulled it off.
its very high risk, but its also the dream of Mexican revanchists that make up 50% of the population including me (thanks mexican history books) if Fincapital wins it can Accept the lost of a bit of its southern border as and this is a Doble-edge sword 80% of mexican exports go to the US and Mexico buys more US products than any other nation, its like a China situation, The US cant military theaten Mexico since its economy are so dependent on each other, plus the Chuds would be politicaly death so the Dems could accept the lost of the territory without push back, (also i forgot to mention Mexico would back the FinCap because they are the ones who invests in the mexican economy)
nah, cuba couldnt hold Louisiana or have an armed left faction holded, at best it can make sure the United front has a stronghold in the state
That is definitely the kind of spark scenario that could kick everything off. Unfortunately we can't really predict these things but it's definitely going to be something wild. There will only ever be a civil war if there is a schism in the military. Otherwise it will be a massacre and either a coup or a solidification of power. I think the fact that the military leadership is loyal to the Haute Bourgeoisie but many soldiers are loyal to Trump guarantees a schism. It's definitely going to be scary
have you listened to the tides fo history podcast interview with mike duncan?
I definitely see the biden or trump 2nd term during absolutely nothing, or in the republican's case, doing something for the absolutely wrong people. So we are very likely to see a bucking of trends by blue states, who have obligations to their own bourgeois, and how the continued collapse of red states does not benefit them.
In tides of history podcast, and it should really have been a bigger moment, but gavin newsom referred to California as almost its own nation state, and there continues to be inter-state agreements that have superseded or overridden the federal covid-19 response. More importantly, earlier in the pandemic, states were hiding their own purchased emergency equipment from the feds to prevent them from raiding their supplies to give to Trump's allies.
I think we could really see a legitimate balkanization of blue states and red states, as the blue states either: get a better handle of the covid-19 crsisis, or find the "trump treatment" too harsh for their own liking and start to refuse federal orders.
So not only will we see inter-state warfare, but internal state conflict as Trump land in California attacks cities and areas known as blue strongholds (this is better discussed in "it could happen here").
What I personally think is gonna happen, because it has been happening already for a long time: more stochastic white supremacist terrorism will continue to occur with little to no response from federal authorities. Regardless of who wins, there will be more white supremacist violence, this is an absolute given, and the federal government will be paralyzed as they cannot target the only beneficiaries of the system they have set up to protect and give the looted spoils, or they'll end up just at war with neighbors and shit.
I haven't listened to that, but I should.
Balkanization, if it were to happen, would have to be a right wing initiative. It would have to be red states seceding because pigs won't be on board with Commiefornia seceding from their beloved America. The interesting part would be the National Guard. I don't know that they'd be down with seceding in any state.
