i wrote this a few years ago. how "bayesianism" is actually done.
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Well put. When a rationalist remembers to pretend to do bayesianism, they do exactly what everyone else does but pretend as if they've figured out something unique.
🤔 Hmm hmm I wonder what color the leaves are on the next tree. A typical frequentist simpleton might think they're green since that's the most common color of a tree leaf but as a Bayesian I have priors including the fact it's October and in autumn most leaves are yellow. Surely no normies would take external facts into account!
or, in practice:
- femoid? not a saltine-American? hmmm, I got some priors on that darlin'