Between just trying to just absorb more theory, browsing the DSA vs. PSL vs. Local Org vs. Whatever struggle sessions, and listening to some recent KushVlogs from Christman (call me a lib, I know), I see a recurring theme of the lack of a cohesive, united leftist movement in America. To my (probably incorrect) mind, this seems like a non-insignificant hurdle to actually gaining real leftist power in the US and has made me curious to see what kind of path people see through this uncertainty. To me, it almost feels like a collapse/balkanization of America might be the strongest possibility but I'm just throwing ideas at a wall.
Unionization of a major employer such as Walmart (if not done by a CIA spook). I think its insanely difficult to pull off but not impossible.
Amazon seems more likely considering there's a vote coming up. That union will be insanely powerful, they'd rival the dockworkers in power, but are so poor they'd be 3 times as militant
Only after most of Latin America has had successful proletarian revolutions. Americans are too comfortable and it can probably only happen when we're not subsidized by cheap LA goods and labor.
Economic collapse and environmental collapse will be the two main drivers of left-wing growth. Add to this the religious nutjobs, the racism and the neo-nazi movements and you have a ridiculously explosive cocktail. People reject the status quo, and ditch their old views for more radical ones, especially in times where material conditions deteriorate quickly and noticeably. I'm definitely not counting on John fucking Kerry to stop climate change, or Neera Tanden to help with the economy, so Biden's presidency will serve at best as a 4 year interlude into 2024, or at worst, it'll actively throw oil on a gigantic fire that is forming. Only a Deus Ex Machina can save the millions of Americans who are losing everything right now, so eh... we'll see how it goes.
If lack of a unified movement is your concern, join the IWW and the DSA. They're the most cohesive national level left wing groups, and you'll find radicals in both. They're also both multi issue, so you'll be able to peruse whatever you think is most likely to pull the lever.
That said, I think we'll need to see movement crossover on a large scale if we want to seize power. Think about the dockworkers striking against the iraq war. Think about the cops out of AFL movement. Think about the red house defense by BLM and Antiascists under the stop the sweeps banner. Think about chicago teachers striking to get jrotc out of their schools.
We need to generalize those alliances so that the working class fights as one for co liberation in a deliberate, interdependent way where leadership comes from within the class and takes the form of many, many people.
So if you're in an org, make connections with orgs that don't usually cross communicate. I know anarchists and abolitionists often agree, but don't work together. Make those connections. SAlt and DSA are doing a lot of the same electoral work. Make those connections. If you want a unified left, unify it.
A very strong contender for the next big catalytic event, which could possibly end in a leftward turn, is the inevitable financial collapse followed by another bailout. 2008 was not long enough ago that it seems like the last generation, it will be the same people getting fucked the same way they did not too long ago, and that could lead to something.
i think my funny answer is if people literally just kill every single person in the presidential chain of sucession until people stop trying to get a new president because they will be killed on sight you could solve this but on a real answer probably whenever america is no longer the hegemon is the best shot bonus if you guys lost the position while also causing a shit ton of unrest because of a failed war that destroyed the country and is somehow longer than the iraq war
The failure of the US media apparatus to control public opinion will be a big one. Its the US's biggest defence against radicalism. Once that happens they will turn to fascism and open authoritarianism to maintain control, which will radicalise even more people.
it's coming baby, we are in the cool zone
god i fucking hope
IT LITERALLY DOESN'T MATTER.
Any prediction anyone makes will be stupid because of how removed from an event like that. All anyone can do is focus on more practical targets that are meaningful in the near future, and earn the left more sway and power.
Balkanization/secession of states/cities as imperial power wanes. It would probably start with the outer colonies like Puerto Rico or cities like Portland
We have to chase the power we have instead of the power we want. The one thing that absolutely, positively, must occur is withdrawal of labor. Now that might be a tautology because you're asking how do we get power, and if we get power by striking, then the question is how do we organize massive strikes. If I could answer that I wouldn't be here right now. But maybe I can help anyways. We want to organize every min wage worker because that's the power we want to have. But that's unrealistic. Instead of going after the McDonald's worker we should be going after the people who supply McDonald's. Those are harder jobs to replace right now. And you best believe capitals is working 24/7 in order to fix that. The reason there's this big push for 5G and self-driving cars is because someone somewhere has figured out that if we can fuck with the supply lines through labor disputes, then that's power for us. We can't convince a Tesla semi-truck to strike. When they don't need labor to transport goods that's another piece of power we lose. So we can't waste time trying to unionize 18 year olds at Taco Bell. It sounds shitty, it sounds anti-left because we all think everyone should be unionized. But, again, we need to chase the power we have not the power we want.
If we can get the people, who the wealthy vitally need, to strike, then we win. As we've seen with the pandemic, a lot of people do not need to go to work in order for the wealthy to make money. Those are the people, unfortunately, we need to ignore. Because if those people withdraw their labor, the wealthy can live without them. They'll be fired and the businesses shuttered. The wealthy can't operate without airports, logistics, imports/exports, and stuff like that. They can live all day without video game developers or people who drive Uber.
You can argue that unionizing anyone is a point for us and against them. I tend to agree. But what I'm saying is don't go after anyone first, go after specific groups first. Then if the cashier at Walmart wants to join later, they can. The only real path we have is where those people needed most can withdraw their labor and make demands. Otherwise, what demands can we make? Give us healthcare or all the things you desperately need will arrive on time tomorrow?
The issue then becomes, as I said before, how to make that happen. How do we unite the truck drivers, the airport workers, the importers/exporters, the shipyard people, etc all under one set of specific goals/demands? I don't know that answer. But I know that's where the party is going be. Whatever leftist party forms must coalesce around existing power and not our ideal of where our power should be. This is why electoralism is dead for us right now. And any gains by the DSA don't matter (not trying to shit on their work) because having 200 DSA people in government still doesn't provide any way to create demands. If they refuse to do their job, then oh well. They can't threaten with a labor strike either because we don't have those people organized. It all comes back to getting the right people under one roof. Then all the wannabe leftist politicians and wonks can move to support the labor movement and form a party out of that.
Massive cultural and protest movement continues to gain steam until it over throws the cultural hegemony, cities go into open revolt, then a free officers coup.
A party arises that actually decides it wants to lead the worker's movement so it facilitates massive unionization efforts and acts as their political representative, just like everywhere else.
