Think the unfortunate reality is that the No Vote is all but certain to get up. Unless the Yes Campaign can really shift the vote which is hard to do at this point.
This is probably a good attitude to take. There have been plenty of cases in recent voting where a “sure thing” failed because either the pundits were wrong, or people believed the pundits and didn’t even try.
According to the Experts;
- Hillary was going to win in 2016.
- The Orange blob had successfully fucked up US democracy enough to win in 2020.
- Dan Andrews was going to be voted out in his last two elections.
- ScoMo was going to win the last election.
- The Liberal Party was going to win in NSW.
Just because the “Experts” say that something is guaranteed, they aren’t actually able to guarantee anything.
There should be something like Heisenbergs Uncertainty Principle for politics (and movie reviews). By observing, analysing and publishing, pundits will (and are probably trying to) affect the outcome.
Sadly though referendums are very difficult to pass due to requiring a super majority or whatever, the majority of the majority of people in states. The polls are pretty grim, I don't think it's likely at all.
And people voting in the NT and ACT only contribute to the population majority not the state majority. Feels like we need to change our referendum rules.
The polls are not looking good. But I wonder if those polls are capturing younger people, who are harder to reach via traditional sampling methods. Also a lot of undecided and 'soft' yes / no voters still as well and these votes could determine the result. A lot of people will also tune in last minute and decide on the day.
Hey, just a little nudge, if you’re keen to chat about the Voice to Parliament, we’ve got this corker of a megathread where we can all have a good chinwag in one spot. But if you’re not up for that, no worries, it’s business as usual. Gotta keep things fair dinkum!
