copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • edit-29 months agoTech predictions for 2024 and beyondplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkTech predictions for 2024 and beyondplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • edit-29 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 9 months agoUnderstanding Subjective Probabilitiesplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkUnderstanding Subjective Probabilitiesplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 9 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 9 months agoPredictions market Kalshi sues CFTC for blocking election contractsplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkPredictions market Kalshi sues CFTC for blocking election contractsplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 9 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 9 months agoMantic Monday 12/4/23plus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkMantic Monday 12/4/23plus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 9 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • edit-210 months agoWhat the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024plus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkWhat the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024plus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • edit-210 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agoPrediction Markets Are Not Pollsplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkPrediction Markets Are Not Pollsplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agoMarkets in fact-checkingplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkMarkets in fact-checkingplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agoUsing prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific researchplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkUsing prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific researchplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agoPrediction markets can tell the future. Why is the US so afraid of them?plus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkPrediction markets can tell the future. Why is the US so afraid of them?plus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agoSuperforecasters’ Toolbox: Fermi-ization in Forecastingplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkSuperforecasters’ Toolbox: Fermi-ization in Forecastingplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agoHow to Predict the Future - Interview of Jason Mathenyplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkHow to Predict the Future - Interview of Jason Mathenyplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agoPrediction Markets in The Corporate Setting (2021)plus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkPrediction Markets in The Corporate Setting (2021)plus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 10 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agoSpeaker Election: Interviewing the Top Tradersplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkSpeaker Election: Interviewing the Top Tradersplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agoWill Iran develop a nuclear weapon? (INFER Issue Report October 2023) [pdf]plus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkWill Iran develop a nuclear weapon? (INFER Issue Report October 2023) [pdf]plus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agoTDN Launches Prediction Marketplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkTDN Launches Prediction Marketplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agoPrediction Markets: When Do They Work?external-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkPrediction Markets: When Do They Work?copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • edit-211 months agoIsrael’s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflictsplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkIsrael’s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflictsplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • edit-211 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agoSocial Media in Wartime, Betting on the Future and A.I. Passes the Smell Testplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkSocial Media in Wartime, Betting on the Future and A.I. Passes the Smell Testplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agoComparing Two Forecasters in an Ideal Worldplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkComparing Two Forecasters in an Ideal Worldplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agoPredicting, and Knowing What to Predictplus-squareexternal-linkmessage-square0 fedilinkarrow-up11
arrow-up11external-linkPredicting, and Knowing What to Predictplus-squarecopacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months agomessage-square0 Commentsfedilink