I live in Georgia. Stacey Abraham is a corporate fraud who denied Tara reade in defense of joe biden using sources such as the nyt. Then the New York Times said they didn’t absolve joe biden of guilt and that she was full of shit basically and she got a head pat from pedo joe. She is not a fighter she is a career politician who literally runs a democratic super PAC. Fuck this asshole shes never going to win by sucking off the corporate teet in a place like georgia, only an actual leftist would win the governorship promising legal weed universal healthcare free college 15 dollar minimum wage. That candidate would destroy Brian kemp.
She lost in 2018 by 50k votes, in an election cycle that saw Democrats highly motivated by Trump after 2 years of being locked out of power.
She doesn’t have a prayer in 2022 when Republicans will be way more motivated than Dems.
losing is fine for dems. See Beto
yeah, but wasn't that the election that people like to say Brian Kemp stole? Her opponent was in charge of elections in Georgia while being a candidate. Also you can say 50k votes likes it's a big number or whatever, but in a race where 3,900,000 votes were cast, it's actually a really thin margin; and since then, she's started Fair Fight, an organization to do voter registration and outreach. She's not some loser like Beto, she's a full on lizard person aiming to outgrow her fishbowl.
Would Brian Kemp still be in control of the process, in this next election though? Unless Fair Fight has done something to address that or to otherwise get out the vote -- but I don't trust corporate Democrats to do either of those things successfully. The GOP probably did cheat, but they always cheat and I don't think Abrams will have what it takes to overcome the factors against her.
Like, she defended Michael Bloomberg then got behind Joe Biden so she's pretty far into the right wing of the Democratic party. I think this will be an incredibly difficult position to sell in '22 -- I don't think it will motivate people. I'm sure she wants to see her star rise but I think it's going to be a real challenge to do that with austere liberalism.
Beto significantly boosted Dem registration and turnout in 2018. She's the exact same "loser" Beto is. She's just working in a smaller state with a more concentrated black population all based in Atlanta. Beto's forced to bounce between four different major metro areas and still compete against the heavily conservative rural neighborhoods that Republicans consistently dominate.
Stacey's theory was that you could flip Georgia almost entirely by boosting turnout in Atlanta and she was right.
Beto's theory was that you could flip Texas almost entirely by boosting turnout in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio and he was wrong.
Maybe. Trump was a huge boost to participation between 2018 and 2020. He's not on the ballot in 2022. He's not even on Twitter.
Off-years always suck for the Presidential incumbent, and Dems are practically guaranteed to lose Congress. But that's going to be thanks to the baseline R/D polling split. It's got nothing to do with Trump-mentum. If anything, I think Republicans clawing at each other in the primary and competing for the QAnon vote will further undermine their own decrypt scam-filled establishment.
People really do overestimate how successful the GOP is at organizing people. They're just as bad as the Democrats and float just as many turd-ass candidates and grifter campaigns.
Kemp signed into law SB202 which, according to Fair Fight / NYT analysis, severely constrains the exact voters that Abrams would need to win. The GOP's strategy seems to depend more on suppression / cheating, than within organizing people. What can Abrams do in return? She doesn't have Obama's oratory skills to sell the same hollow Democrat platform.
I think voters will realize that Biden / the Dems didn't do a damn thing except tell people to get vaccines more often than Trump did. Abrams is going to be the avatar of Dems that have given almost nothing to their base, after years of allowing them to see Biden get clowned by Manchin. It's far too early to say, but I don't think her expensive super PACs will be able to overshadow these things.
She doesn't need them. She's building up a political machine not just a brand. What she needs is the Atlanta mayorship and city council to resist implementation of SB202 and undercut its impact in her territory.
Nationally, I think you're right. And 2022 will suck for Democrats nationally. But Abrams isn't operating nationally. She's not married to the Biden brand, either. So she can continue to run on a progressive message while calling Kemp an obstructionist. And I'm confident Kemp will fill that role neatly.
Abrams is comfortably distanced from the DC shitshow. And when Biden collapses on himself, she'll be in a great position to move in as the Next Thing. If she can take the Georgia governor's mansion, she might even be able to deliver on some shit that Sleepy Joe can't be bothered with.
She's hardly a shoe-in, but the notion that Democrat voters have just vanished off the face of the earth between 2020 and 2022 is as absurd as assuming Trump voters did the same. It'll be a low-turnout "everyone sucks" year, and folks like Abrams - who have a committed base that mechanically Souls To The Polls - every two years, are in a stronger position than you give them credit.
I just see it in a totally different way
Agree to disagree, then.