We got a banger today from @alexbward and @QuintForgey on why experts thought Feb. 16 was never really going to be the day Russia invades Ukraine ... but why ~Feb. 20 might be.https://t.co/r422PE3O4s via @politico (and with help from @magmill95 @paulmcleary and @dlippman )— Ben Pauker (@benpauker) February 16, 2022