Texas very well could become a weird de jure fascist theocracy like you said, but it would be an aesthetic front to a de facto corporate kleptocracy that has no real interest in separating from the federal government.

Yeah, american balkanization is probably gonna be just that, a weaker and more incompetent federal government that starts to exist more as a figurehead status to try and project american hegemony on the world thats already starting to leave them behind.