It's unlikely that the US would coup AMLO over lithium when they didn't coup Cardenas over oil back in 1938.
The US would rather Mexico remain relatively stable in order to use it as a cordon sanitaire and as a close, reliable source of cheap labor and produce. Mexico has always known this and has leveraged it against the US to achieve a certain degree of autonomy from them despite their physical and cultural proximity. Couping AMLO would:
Open the gates to Central and South American immigration through Mexico's southern border. AMLO's government has been fastidiously stopping and harassing the migrant caravans ever since he took office, probably in accordance with US policy to avoid any contentions that might undermine AMLO's grand plans over his six-year term. Not to mention the myriads of refugees from Mexico itself running towards the US.
Pour gasoline on Mexico's proverbial dumpster fire of a security crisis, ensuring that any provisional or definitive government installed by Washington would be unable to deal with the situation without foreign assistance (AMLO's government is already on the brink in this regard). Needless to say, despite war being its own means for the MI-complex, a not-so-low-anymore intensity conflict in a country of 130m inhabitants bordering the US would go against any security calculation Washington has.
Disrupt both countries' trade with their most important partner, a relation that produced $400b US in 2021, most of which isn't (and probably never will be) lithium. If you even floated the idea of doing a coup in Mexico in an agribusiness boardroom, Biden would die beneath a mountain of hate mail from angry corn producers concerned that he's about to destroy the US' largest corn purchaser by far.
AMLO's calculation in this regard isn't "FUCK YOU, YANKEES", but him exerting the aforementioned leverage against the US: "Don't want caravans? Lithium money goes through the state".
Just my two cents.
As an aside: AMLO isn't the shining leftist leader this site makes out to be. He's done some marginally good stuff (basically made some laws that should've been in the books a long while ago), but most of his tenure has been pretty iffy up to date, and probably won't be getting a lot better, if at all.
It's unlikely that the US would coup AMLO over lithium when they didn't coup Cardenas over oil back in 1938.
The US would rather Mexico remain relatively stable in order to use it as a cordon sanitaire and as a close, reliable source of cheap labor and produce. Mexico has always known this and has leveraged it against the US to achieve a certain degree of autonomy from them despite their physical and cultural proximity. Couping AMLO would:
AMLO's calculation in this regard isn't "FUCK YOU, YANKEES", but him exerting the aforementioned leverage against the US: "Don't want caravans? Lithium money goes through the state".
Just my two cents.
As an aside: AMLO isn't the shining leftist leader this site makes out to be. He's done some marginally good stuff (basically made some laws that should've been in the books a long while ago), but most of his tenure has been pretty iffy up to date, and probably won't be getting a lot better, if at all.