Every other day I get an email from Nancy Pelosi saying that the Dems are ahead in this race or that race. Are they really doing that good? I can understand a bump from student loan forgiveness, but with literally everything else going on, I won't be too surprised if they end up eating shit.
I think it'll probably come down to participation. Midterms see lower turnout as a rule, so the party whose voters are the mouth-frothingest that year (which tends to be the party out of power) tends to do well. Considering that several states have moved to sharply curtail voter participation, I wouldn't be surprised to see anemic turnout carry republicans just over the line despite the fact that their candidates are shit and their poll numbers are terrible.