October 17th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary!
October 18th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary!
Next update will be next Friday, but I'll be poking around the thread during that time. Next thread will go up on Monday like usual.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists, for the “buh Zeleski is a jew?!?!” people.
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
There's no realistic end in sight for this war, it is not at all unlikely that the amount of people killed in this conflict will exceed those of Iraq and Afghanistan. Civilian casualties might be lower, but at this point we're dealing with two mobilised nations. It is still an enormous human tragedy.
I don't disagree that occupation wasn't an option, but there are other options that do include taking out the Ukrainian government.
But my point is that this invasion didn't happen because Russia had a position of strength. They were pushed by the West to act because they thought not acting would be worse. That doesn't mean Putin lacks a sophisticated understanding of the means at his disposal.
But the fact that Russia has to keep escalating, to keep doing more things NATO would do day one of an invasion, telegraphs that they are not fully in control. Generally, the Russians have acted quite cool-headed, but they aren't where they thought or hoped they would be.
Putin is obviously a very skilled leader, but he is not infallible and he did not invent the best thing since people invented consensual sex.
Russia wasn't pushed into this they were goaded... for years... and for years they have been planning how to best handle the situation. Putin deserves a significant amount of the credit for that plan. His team are thinking dozens of moves in advance. USA can't really do that because they have a new president and administration every few years each with their own plans.
You can't have it both ways. A nation doesn't cease to be if you kill its president. If Russia took out a significant part of UA's government they would have to occupy UA or it turns really messy internally and they invite peace keepers from NATO. A direct attack on government officials would turn Russia into a pariah. The human individuals in neutral/friendly governments react in fear as if it was a personal threat. Killing your neighbour's government is a imperialist conqueror move not a liberators move. Even USA gave Saddam a show trial before they executed him. Russia only gets the global south, China, and India on its side (buying its sanctioned exports) by playing a liberator.
Support for Ukraine has begun to wane. USA's midterms will cripple any new aid bills and the lack of heating and energy will finish the EU off. I'd be surprised if the fighting is still going by spring.
Judging from the scale and quick timing of the response to the Crimea bridge attack you can be sure it was planned well before the triggering event. You can't fire 100+ missiles and drones in 5 days without a plan and even still there were only 19 civilian deaths during that retaliation. Russia is still in charge of its escalations and the pace of this war. They aren't "fully in control" but nobody is ever.
I stand by the idea that "Minimal collateral human damage in war" really will be the greatest thing since "Widespread (no pun intended) consensual reproduction."