Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-set-mothball-damaged-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-sources-2023-03-03/
I thought they said seawater would corrode the insides of what's left? this is good news