Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
One of the most prominent conspiracy theories regarding JFK's death is that he was assassinated by the hawkish faction of the CIA after he refused to send reinforcements during the Bay of Pigs Invasion knowing it was insane and pointless. Oh, by the way, it happened during his re-election campaign.
They wouldn't even need to shoot Joe, they could just jump scare him and say it was supposed to be a silly prank as his heart collapses in on itself