After the Western sanctions on Russia during the start of the Ukraine war, Iran and Russia have moved much closer in military and technological cooperation and is currently very close to formalizing a comprehensive defense treaty between the two nations.
Iranian drones (Shahed) have already been used in Ukraine, and Russia has already obtained the licensing rights to manufacture their own domestic version (Geran-2), which has also been deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Modern Russian air defense systems, in particular the S-400s, will neutralize NATO/Israeli air superiority against Iran.
The question is how fast Russia can manufacture these SAM batteries, since Russia already has its hands full at the moment. Ukraine, under the supervision of NATO, continues to lob rockets and missiles and launch drones into Russian territory (including along the Finnish-Russian border), which in turn forces Russia to deploy its air defense systems along vast stretch of its European border.
The delivery of the last two squadrons of S-400 that India ordered seven years ago, originally slated for delivery in 2023, had to be delayed until 2025. It’s clear that Russia is prioritizing its own air defenses against Ukraine and does not have the production level to export to other countries like Iran at the moment. So that will take years (also likely why NATO continues to force Russia to engage in Ukraine despite the fact that Ukraine can no longer win the war - it still serves its purpose of tying Russia from sending advanced military equipments to Iran and its allies in the Middle East).
S-400 is possibly the best AA system in the world that is in serial manufacturing (there's also S-500 which is even better, but afaik still in testing). For comparison, in 2019 Iran shot down most modern US stealth drone worth 200 million with old Soviet missile from 60's and using domestically produced radar and guidance system.
I wouldn’t call it “special” but the S-400, while far from perfect, is still leaps and bounds better than any other system in the world with a 400km weapon range. This is 4 times the range of US AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation (radar) missiles.
This is going to keep most non-stealth 4th generation planes (F-15s, F-16s) from high altitude bombing (even under heavy jamming) and force them to fly at low altitude which will subject them to short/intermediate range anti-air defense batteries and MANPADs. Integrated air defense systems (IADS) is about building layers of air defense complexes where their sensors and fire control systems are networked within the same platform, which is what made the Soviet/Russian system so good.
Remember on the first day of the Ukraine war when Russia turned on its S-400 radar near its southern border for a moment and shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 some 250km away in Kyiv (which then crashed into an apartment complex)? It’s that lethal for the non-stealth planes.
The F-35s are likely going to fare better but the S-400 radars are probably also powerful enough to detect the stealth aircrafts at certain range. This is pure speculation however because there hasn’t been any real involvement of F-35s on the battlefront yet.
After the Western sanctions on Russia during the start of the Ukraine war, Iran and Russia have moved much closer in military and technological cooperation and is currently very close to formalizing a comprehensive defense treaty between the two nations.
Iranian drones (Shahed) have already been used in Ukraine, and Russia has already obtained the licensing rights to manufacture their own domestic version (Geran-2), which has also been deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Modern Russian air defense systems, in particular the S-400s, will neutralize NATO/Israeli air superiority against Iran.
The question is how fast Russia can manufacture these SAM batteries, since Russia already has its hands full at the moment. Ukraine, under the supervision of NATO, continues to lob rockets and missiles and launch drones into Russian territory (including along the Finnish-Russian border), which in turn forces Russia to deploy its air defense systems along vast stretch of its European border.
The delivery of the last two squadrons of S-400 that India ordered seven years ago, originally slated for delivery in 2023, had to be delayed until 2025. It’s clear that Russia is prioritizing its own air defenses against Ukraine and does not have the production level to export to other countries like Iran at the moment. So that will take years (also likely why NATO continues to force Russia to engage in Ukraine despite the fact that Ukraine can no longer win the war - it still serves its purpose of tying Russia from sending advanced military equipments to Iran and its allies in the Middle East).
Very cool and interesting. Thanks for the effort post.
FFS
Is there something special about the technology, or is it just that Iran has poor air defense and generic tech would fix that?
S-400 is possibly the best AA system in the world that is in serial manufacturing (there's also S-500 which is even better, but afaik still in testing). For comparison, in 2019 Iran shot down most modern US stealth drone worth 200 million with old Soviet missile from 60's and using domestically produced radar and guidance system.
I wouldn’t call it “special” but the S-400, while far from perfect, is still leaps and bounds better than any other system in the world with a 400km weapon range. This is 4 times the range of US AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation (radar) missiles.
This is going to keep most non-stealth 4th generation planes (F-15s, F-16s) from high altitude bombing (even under heavy jamming) and force them to fly at low altitude which will subject them to short/intermediate range anti-air defense batteries and MANPADs. Integrated air defense systems (IADS) is about building layers of air defense complexes where their sensors and fire control systems are networked within the same platform, which is what made the Soviet/Russian system so good.
Remember on the first day of the Ukraine war when Russia turned on its S-400 radar near its southern border for a moment and shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 some 250km away in Kyiv (which then crashed into an apartment complex)? It’s that lethal for the non-stealth planes.
The F-35s are likely going to fare better but the S-400 radars are probably also powerful enough to detect the stealth aircrafts at certain range. This is pure speculation however because there hasn’t been any real involvement of F-35s on the battlefront yet.