To be fair, if "Cold War II" leads to proxy wars between the US and China, then Iran would be a perfect battle ground for it. China siding with Iran is very bad news if America decides to commit to attacking it.
Only problem is, unlike in the 80s, there is no one who wants to attack Iran on America's behalf (like Saddam did). Except maybe Saudi Arabia. But anyone who knows anything about that dynamic knows Iran would destroy Saudi Arabia in literally hours if the two went to War. MBS is not Saddam. Mountains are easier to defend than flat (highly flammable) desert plains.
So if America wanted to attack Iran they would have to use American troops, not proxy troops. And America would loose easily a million troops in that fight - Iran is one of the most difficult countries on Earth to invade, based on geography, military strength, ideological commitment, etc. I do wonder if China would try to stop the US directly if it attacked Iran, that is uncertain...
I just can't see it happening. Everyone is exhausted from Iraq and Afghanistan. People don't even want to think about foreign policy, let alone go to war with a country like Iran. Obama signed a peace treaty but now we're going to go to war?
I agree. But I agree in the short-term. Invading Iran is a long-term project for the US military industrial complex and if it takes 20, 30, or 50 years they'll eventually get around to it. Hell, they invaded Iraq twice before they were satisfied in its destruction. Rumsfeld and his buddies had those plans just lying around for over 20 years when 9/11 gave them an opening. Invading Iraq would have been an "impossible sell" until 9/11 made so many Americans anti-Islam war hawks for a few years. Don't underestimate the power of propaganda fugue-state Chauvinism.
Oh it's no doubt possible, just not within Biden's first term or the near future. Asking the US public to green light a huge war after fucking up wars for two decades is a hard sell. NATSEC burned through all it's political capital, and it'll take a while to restock it up.
A Cold War and a decade or two of gaslighting and agitation will restock the political capital cupboard. Defense profits are through the roof since 2000. Regulatory capture is in full effect and I'm sure there are plans to embroil the US in another Cold War with proxy fights against China.
It'll have giant speakers on the outside blaring "THIS IS AN IRANIAN PLANE, THIS PLANE CAME FROM IRAN!", But said in a clearly fake accent that sounds like Apu.
That prospect does make me sad. Yeah, there are plenty of rabid chuds who just want to kill brown people in the military, but the level of indoctrination going into American youth means plenty of brainwashed young people will have their lives stolen in such an event (that doesn't justify their actions, of course, and I'd definitely feel more sad for the millions more Iranians who would die in that scenario).
The silver-lining to all this being that there was a case of a certain country which suffered egregious military casualties in a pointless war leading up to a revolution :lenin-pogger:
Absolutely. As one of those kids who was at that crossroads in his life at 17ish and worried about loans/life/direction/etc, passing by a recruitment booth at high school stands out as a memory to me. So I sympathize to a degree with people who drank the imperialist koolaid or simply wanted a way out of financial stresses or both.
That said, I wouldn't begrudge someone in Yemen or Iraq if they consider the troops irredeemable scum.
It's not about sympathy as much as about strategy. Changing the United States is fundamentally impossible without allies in the United States military. And there are hundreds of thousands of potential comrades in the armed forces.
I've read Settlers. The number of Hispanic people in the USA (AKA the descendants of indigenous Americans) is increasing year by year. If you write off the USA you are also writing off all of those indigenous descendants, which is racist.
Eh, just because Mestizo Latinos have indigenous blood doesn't mean they can't internalize settler mentality. Pretty much all of Latin American history since the initial conquests are a testament to that, and not all gusanos are white.
But yeah, you're right. I'm not sure how one reads Settlers and comes to the conclusion that, because the US is fundamentally an imperialist settler-colonial system, we shouldn't take advantage of its many contradictions (soldier discontent) and leave the growing number of POC and conscious whites to burn along with it.
TBH most of the ex-soldiers I've met are really cool nice people and they themselves are often dissatisfied and angry at what the leadership is doing. If we just dismiss every member of the American military whole-cloth, we're dismissing thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of potential comrades. A huge swath of the American military/veterans is 18-25-year-olds disillusioned, depressed, and alienated by capitalism and imperialism - AKA potential comrades.
(P.S. The O.G. Kurt Vonnegut was a veteran of WWII who later became an anti-war activist. Also, people are more likely listen to veterans about military stuff. Anti-war veterans are the best people to "sell" the anti-war message, IMO.)
To be fair, if "Cold War II" leads to proxy wars between the US and China, then Iran would be a perfect battle ground for it. China siding with Iran is very bad news if America decides to commit to attacking it.
Only problem is, unlike in the 80s, there is no one who wants to attack Iran on America's behalf (like Saddam did). Except maybe Saudi Arabia. But anyone who knows anything about that dynamic knows Iran would destroy Saudi Arabia in literally hours if the two went to War. MBS is not Saddam. Mountains are easier to defend than flat (highly flammable) desert plains.
So if America wanted to attack Iran they would have to use American troops, not proxy troops. And America would loose easily a million troops in that fight - Iran is one of the most difficult countries on Earth to invade, based on geography, military strength, ideological commitment, etc. I do wonder if China would try to stop the US directly if it attacked Iran, that is uncertain...
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I just can't see it happening. Everyone is exhausted from Iraq and Afghanistan. People don't even want to think about foreign policy, let alone go to war with a country like Iran. Obama signed a peace treaty but now we're going to go to war?
Impossible sell.
I agree. But I agree in the short-term. Invading Iran is a long-term project for the US military industrial complex and if it takes 20, 30, or 50 years they'll eventually get around to it. Hell, they invaded Iraq twice before they were satisfied in its destruction. Rumsfeld and his buddies had those plans just lying around for over 20 years when 9/11 gave them an opening. Invading Iraq would have been an "impossible sell" until 9/11 made so many Americans anti-Islam war hawks for a few years. Don't underestimate the power of propaganda fugue-state Chauvinism.
Oh it's no doubt possible, just not within Biden's first term or the near future. Asking the US public to green light a huge war after fucking up wars for two decades is a hard sell. NATSEC burned through all it's political capital, and it'll take a while to restock it up.
A Cold War and a decade or two of gaslighting and agitation will restock the political capital cupboard. Defense profits are through the roof since 2000. Regulatory capture is in full effect and I'm sure there are plans to embroil the US in another Cold War with proxy fights against China.
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First as tragedy, then as farce. Instead of jet fuel, the Iranians will fill the plane with silly string.
It'll have giant speakers on the outside blaring "THIS IS AN IRANIAN PLANE, THIS PLANE CAME FROM IRAN!", But said in a clearly fake accent that sounds like Apu.
perhaps the only good thing that could come of a US-Iran war
That prospect does make me sad. Yeah, there are plenty of rabid chuds who just want to kill brown people in the military, but the level of indoctrination going into American youth means plenty of brainwashed young people will have their lives stolen in such an event (that doesn't justify their actions, of course, and I'd definitely feel more sad for the millions more Iranians who would die in that scenario).
The silver-lining to all this being that there was a case of a certain country which suffered egregious military casualties in a pointless war leading up to a revolution :lenin-pogger:
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Absolutely. As one of those kids who was at that crossroads in his life at 17ish and worried about loans/life/direction/etc, passing by a recruitment booth at high school stands out as a memory to me. So I sympathize to a degree with people who drank the imperialist koolaid or simply wanted a way out of financial stresses or both.
That said, I wouldn't begrudge someone in Yemen or Iraq if they consider the troops irredeemable scum.
Meh, I don't feel any sympathy toward the young babykillers.
It's not about sympathy as much as about strategy. Changing the United States is fundamentally impossible without allies in the United States military. And there are hundreds of thousands of potential comrades in the armed forces.
Yep. I don’t expect there to be something like the Russian Revolution in the US but having military allies is a massive boon to any movement.
Changing the US is fundamentally impossible because of the amount of brain dead colonists that live here. obligatory read Settlers.
I've read Settlers. The number of Hispanic people in the USA (AKA the descendants of indigenous Americans) is increasing year by year. If you write off the USA you are also writing off all of those indigenous descendants, which is racist.
Eh, just because Mestizo Latinos have indigenous blood doesn't mean they can't internalize settler mentality. Pretty much all of Latin American history since the initial conquests are a testament to that, and not all gusanos are white.
But yeah, you're right. I'm not sure how one reads Settlers and comes to the conclusion that, because the US is fundamentally an imperialist settler-colonial system, we shouldn't take advantage of its many contradictions (soldier discontent) and leave the growing number of POC and conscious whites to burn along with it.
TBH most of the ex-soldiers I've met are really cool nice people and they themselves are often dissatisfied and angry at what the leadership is doing. If we just dismiss every member of the American military whole-cloth, we're dismissing thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of potential comrades. A huge swath of the American military/veterans is 18-25-year-olds disillusioned, depressed, and alienated by capitalism and imperialism - AKA potential comrades.
(P.S. The O.G. Kurt Vonnegut was a veteran of WWII who later became an anti-war activist. Also, people are more likely listen to veterans about military stuff. Anti-war veterans are the best people to "sell" the anti-war message, IMO.)
Sounds about white.
So you falsely assume the person you disagree with is white, to try to win an argument. Brilliant.
I thought this website was for GOOD FAITH discussion???
TIL sand is highly flammable.