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It’s a stand-in for Belarus or Ukraine. The Eastern Slav Republic is a post-Soviet state in Eastern Europe, and Russia is mentioned by name invading the country with the US to stop their usage of the Las Plagas parasite, so it can’t be Russia.
Also as a post Soviet state, why would the Eastern Slav Republic need A-10’s? They already have SU-25’s as a part of their arsenal. What use would an A-10 be to them?
They would publicly humiliate him as a rouge actor, let Interpol persecute him, then probably pressure the court for a heavily reduced sentence. Probably a meager few months, or a year or so, in prison for the optics.
He’s not a CIA agent to part of the military, so I don’t see any reason for then to rabidly defend him.