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Cake day: March 24th, 2022

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  • Wanted to say that I appreciate your insights on this.

    Thanks! I appreciate the discussion as well.

    Assuming Putin can’t find someone friendly to back, who, in your opinion, would be able to step a top-level position that wouldn’t just be buying time to try this all over again? Does such a person exist in the current political landscape?

    I assume Putin would prefer someone pro-Russian to head Ukraine, but I can't even foresee if he will support anyone. As I said, the only thing the Russians have said publicly is that they recognize the Ukrainian Rada (Parliament) but not Zelenski or his government. There's talk that Zelenski's chief of staff, Yermak might take over from Zelenski (and Yermak has also stated that Ukraine should consider the Russian proposal), but Yermak has little popular support, and seems to have participated in the plunder of Ukraine, so it is unlikely he'll take power any time soon, if the Russians and Ukrainian people have any say about it.

    Do you believe there’s really enough political opposition to this war after the elections?

    I think so to a degree. Perhaps not right away, but most European states will have presidential or parliamentary elections coming up in the next 2 years. The success of the far right in the Euro-elections have caused a stir. Euro-elections usually have voters vote along party lines, since parties don't really try to cooperate or deal with each other for the outcomes, except in very few cases. So they serve as a good prediction for national elections (although in general the turn-out is less than national elections). The first analysis have started coming out, and it's clear that the votes for the far right don't just have to do with the immigrant crisis or the rise of fascism in Europe.

    In Germany for example, 40% of young voters (16-25) who voted for AfD said they did because it's the only party that talks about reducing inflation, economic relief for people over the cost of living massive rise, restricting the banks, and is against supporting Ukraine and Israel.

    In France, Macron's Renew party got 15% of the votes, and had a really abysmall turn-out among its core voters. What did Macron do to anger them? Well the French have the same economic concerns as the German youth, and are probably angry at Macron's mismanagement of the economy and his neoliberal policies, as expressed by the recent riots. But Macron is currently serving a second term, and his supporters had voted for him back then, despite the same issues plaguing France, and riots (of a lesser degree) occuring all over the country. So what did Macron do? He brazenly and carelessly tried to install a nuclear war tripwire in Ukraine, by committing himself to sending French troops there. And then he urged other Europeans to do the same. And he kept repeating it over and over. So the French basically told him no.

    So yes, the European ruling parties will probably register this. And most of them will consider doing anything to remain in power, even if it means not towing the line that the US dictates. But that's not a guarantee for sure. Von der Leyen and other crazies have their seats guaranteed, so they will certainly not go along with this, and might produce enough pressure to keep the EU in line. But, I foresee that the riots in France will start repeating everywhere in the next decade for Europe. The people are muttering about spending so much money on Ukraine, while they get shafted with high prices on everything. The connection between sanctions on Russia and the record-breaking gas prices is apparent for everyone. The support for a state in the process of genociding an oppressed people is also not helping the ruling parties.


  • Agreed, but it's the first time that Ukrainian politicians in the government (and they are not in low positions either) are coming out and saying publicly they should take Russia's peace proposal seriously. That's a big shift, and in conjunction with Russia saying they don't recognize Zelenski anymore and will not discuss anything with him, that makes it likely that the Zelenski government will eat itself (Note: Russians say that according to the Ukrainian constitution, the legitimate leader is the Ukrainian Head of Parliament).

    Yes, the EU is basically a vassal of the US, but they do have the strength to resist. The problem is that they don't want to. So Putin's proposal puts pressure on them to want to.

    As for Israel vs Ukraine. Yes, the practical thing would be to choose Ukraine over Israel. But US politics are not grounded in practicality. The Israel lobby has far more sway in the US than any other group, which stretches deeply into both parties. The US has lost every shred of diplomatic credibility in the last year after continuing to fanatically support and enable Israel's genocide (as admitted by the resignation letters of state department officials). They've even been trying to pass a law that the US will not be legally able to stop funding Israel. Yet they don't seem to even trt to stop. This conflict of who to support is playing out right now, and Israel is winning it.





  • The media are irrelevant here, since a significant number of people in the West no longer trust them. And Putin's proposal was not targeting them either way. Russia doesn't care anymore what the West thinks.

    However, the recent European parliament elections have shaken things up quite a bit. It has become apparent to the ruling parties that the jingoist anti-Russian rhetoric damaged them instead of helping them. And we can see that by the silence of Macron since then, and the refusal of Scholz to proceed with further sanctions. Furthermore the economic damage to Europe is no longer something to ignore.

    Also, Putin was probably targeting non-Western countries with this proposal, so that they would not support the Ukrainian plan for applying pressure. And those ones ARE considering Minsk, Istanbul etc.

    Putin's major target was Ukrainians themselves, and it seems to have worked. Ukrainians have started saying they want peace. That's the most critical part here. No matter how much the West might want to continue this war, if Ukrainians are unwilling to fight, then it will end.

    Finally, the defense ghouls, as you aptly put it, might want to keep selling weapons, but the realities on the ground make them irrelevant as well. There is no more Ukrainian manpower, and without manpower who is going to operate these weapons? The West? Secondly, the Palestinian Uprising is now competing with Ukraine for weapons and the Western industrial complex can only barely satisfy one of them. Who do you think they'll drop?




  • Western aims

    It's clear that the primary goal of the summit was to get together a bunch of states that would agree to condemn Russia and pressure it to accept peace on Ukrainian terms. Yes, misguided, desperate and ignoring reality, but that's the only reason not to invite Russia to a summit for peace in a war, where Russia is the other party.

    The recent escalations by the West can be explained as a prelude to this pressure campaign. France and Britain saying they will send soldiers. US and Europeans giving "permission" to Ukraine to strike Russian territory. F-16s. More funding and weapons. They were all meant to intimidate Russia. Russia's attempts at de-escalating a potential global conflict are seen as weakness by the West, and they were probably hoping that the threat of a WW3 would make Russia afraid and willing to accept less than it normally would.

    Publicly, the US and Europeans are decrying Russia's proposal, but that's to be expected at this stage. We shouldn't forget that 90 countries are attending the summit, and that obviously includes non-Western states too, including India, which is a main buyer of Russian oil and part of BRICS.

    The effect of Putin's proposal

    So considering all that, how does Putin's proposal throw a wrench in Western plans?

    1. We should consider that Putin announced this a few days after the European parliamentary elections, were the ruling parties of Europe were largely trounced by the far-right, which has been critical of anti-Russian sanctions and the participation in the war. Macron and Scholz lost ground partly because of their stance against Russia. Particularly Scholz, who has been recently elected, but has presided over the destruction of the German economy due to the Nordstream sabotage and sanctions. And we can see that the European regimes are considering this failure of policy, by their actions: France is now silent about sending troops. Germany has vetoed the latest rounds of sanctions against Russia by the EU (last Wednesday). Belgium has said there will be delays in sending the promised F-16s. So Putin's proposal actually reverses the pressure game. The Europeans now have to consider peace, or else risk losing their national elections to the far right.

    2. Zelenski is constantly announcing that the only acceptable peace is a return to the 1991 borders. Putin's proposal outlines how far from reality Zelenski really is. It emphasizes that Zelenski's demands are unreasonable, and that Russia, contrary to the Western narrative, IS willing to talk for peace.

    3. Which brings us to this: Russia's proposal is not only reasonable, it also gives a chance for the West to save a bit of face and for Ukraine to remain independent and viable. "Withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces" does not automatically mean territorial concessions. It can also mean the formation of demilitarized zones that are still administered by Ukraine. The proposal, while it outright denies Ukraine induction into NATO, it does not reject EU membership for Ukraine. It allows Ukraine to keep access to the Black Sea (Odessa), and access to its richest region (Dnipro) It also demonstrates that Russia is consistent, in that the new proposal is still largely based on the Istanbul communique.

    4. Non-western countries attending the summit, are not in such a big hurry to confront Russia. Putin's proposal gives them something to consider before they sign on to anything drastic. Putin's proposal targets them as much as the Ukrainian people.

    5. Ukrainians coming out and saying they should consider this peace is already a big point in favour of Russia. It creates the conditions for the eventual fall of Zelenski and his Nazi handlers.

    6. Putin's proposal surely hijacks the summit, as, for the above reasons, it will be a major talking point among the attendees.


  • A few hours before the G7 meeting in Rome, and a few days before the "peace summit" organized by Zelenski in Switzerland, Putin announced the conditions for new peace negotiations:

    • Withdrawal of all Ukrainian troops from Zaporozhia, Donetsk, Lugansk and Kherson, and recognizing those areas as Russian (as well as Crimea)

    • Commitment not to join NATO (but no mention of EU membership)

    • Commitment for neutrality

    • Demilitarization and denazification

    Zelenski outright denied this call for peace, but Ukrainians are coming out and saying they should consider this. Most notably, the Ukrainian PM Denis Smyhal, saying they should organize another peace summit and invite Russia.

    This has got the West scrambling, and has basically torpedoed the "peace summit" in Switzerland, as European states will most likely pressure Zelenski to start talking on Russia's basis for peace.


  • There's an argument to be made that alienation is so deeply developed in Western capitalist societies and that society has become so dystopian, that people have nothing in reality to identify with. As a result, they identify with the realities presented by their entertainment, i.e. the fantastical worlds they use to escape reality. Be it written fiction, films and series, or even sports.

    To put it simply, most Westerners suffering under late stage capitalism, will spend most of their free time escaping reality instead of interacting with each other or the world at large, and the purpose of work, aside from survival, becomes gaining the funds to find new ways to escape.

    That, combined with incessant propaganda, cultivated pessimism (widespread political corruption, the daily grind, etc), lack of time to self-educate, and cognitive dissonance (the country I live in and have been taught to be loyal to, can not possibly be that bad) creates a situation where a person's lens of looking at reality is no longer based on reality. Instead, their escapism is used to explain the world around them.





  • I don't think Villeneuve did it to paint China in a bad way. There's a point to be served for making China "the bad guys" (although they aren't). Watch the movie to the end, and we can discuss it.

    Also, bear in mind that the US military might have interfered with the script, since that's their term for lending assets to make a film.




  • Cyprus got an outright fascist (from the ELAM party) and another "apolitical" influencer with fascist sympathies (Fidias Panagiotou) to the EU parliament. So that's 2 out of 6 seats to fascists.

    Greece got 4 fascists in its 21 available seats (2 for the EL party, 1 for Afroditi Latinopoulou and 1 for the NIKI party). That's a record for them.

    Austrian and German fascists are also scoring a major victory in EU elections.

    Weird things are going on in France, with Macron dissolving parliament after an exit poll showing the far right winning? I have no idea what's going on there.