Yes, predictions about something, especially what intensity of natural disaster something can withstand, are more likely to be wrong than a current measurement of something verifiable (and under scrutiny) by others. That's the nature of predictions. That the weather service can't give the precise path of the hurricane (even if they've claimed to) doesn't mean I need doubt the current wind speed they report. Believe what you like about this situation. I find it more likely the IAEA has it right.
rehash of this older New Yorker cartoon? there I go writing B.C. on my checks again