• 14 Posts
  • 68 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Dutch didn’t, not alone, far from that.

    As opposed to the chinese, who are completely alone, all 1.whatever billion of them.

    no need to speculate, China is not at the same level today (or we wouldn't even be having this discussion in the first place), no matter how populous. Would it help catch-up? Probably! You are the one bringing this up, not me, so…

    You just fucking said it required cooperation you dumb cum juggler, now you’re saying they failed despite not cooperating?

    Was this a difficult sentence to read? Should I break it down for you? Those two things can be true at the same time (which is essentially what I wrote):

    Today's China has neither.

    You won’t shut up about how hard and difficult and borderline impossible it is and you want me to believe you’re not trying to say they won’t be able to? You’re certainly not arguing that they will.

    Well, I'm sorry that a well-sourced post with actual engineering and historical facts, meant for the legitimately curious and interested people here makes you so angry. What can I say other than "you probably didn't check-out the links and are arguing in bad faith/for the sake of it" and "you are letting your emotions blur your comprehension, i.e. putting words in my mouth".

    That’s not what commercially viable mean, buddy.

    Commercial viability is the likelihood that a product or service will be successful in the marketplace.

    Unless the CCP starts distributing indigenous chips asking nothing in exchange, which I find unlikely to say the least, those will be traded (against hard money, work, resources, …) on some form of market. I'm not really into arguing about semantics, so you do you.




  • Dutch managed it, why wouldn’t the chinese, with a centrally planned economy that can directly integrate the different disciplines, be able to?

    • Dutch didn't, not alone, far from that. Have a stab at the first link I posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmgkV83OhHA

    • This will also show a long list of "honorable mentions" who failed, including the Japanese attempts (which, as you should know, aren't exactly new to the game, way ahead of China and largely self-reliant in the matter, unlike China whose semiconductors industry has been centered around import of foreign tech)

    • I didn't write that they "wouldn't be able to", I merely pointed the actual reasons why this is extremely hard (perhaps the hardest current Engineering feat, or why I find this whole thing fascinating), with speculations that this will take a while

    for the sake of progress instead of making money?

    no need to stretch it: if China wants to meet the ever growing domestic demand (either military or civil), China need fabs churning chips reliably. Simple as that.










  • Hey, thanks for the constructive comment :)

    [China] don’t give a shit about it being commercially viable, they give a shit about having the industrial capacity.

    True, but I don't think the end-goal is to "just" achieve technical sovereignty. Answering local demand requires production at a large scale

    The reason why EUV is more or less a cartel monopoly in the West is that it’s a cobbled together collection of scientific principles that work well enough that the first few companies that figured it out could make insane profits off of it

    I really wouldn't put it that way, if you check my 3rd link out, you'd see that there were a few competing technologies on the table, and the topic was researched by national labs and a lot of public funding as well. Japan was also a leader and significant contributor but ultimately failed. It's not nearly as clearly cut as "bad imperialistic USA locks it down for rest of us": there is real international competition, and real international cooperation.

    I can't predict where we will be at in 20 years. No matter what, we will be many generations beyond EUV. Other approaches that were deemed unfeasible before (=today) might turn practical in the future as fundamental research advances, and I suspect China will be strong in those areas, and, as you said, perhaps a leader.



  • Again, not a military expert, but have you been living under a rock for several years and missed this whole Ukrainian "special military operation"?

    Russia's hyped Kinzhal missiles, which promised to defeat air defence systems and be manoeverable at supersonic speeds are being shot down by 80's era surface to air missiles. And I don't think anyone has been in a position to assess China's capabilities in the matter and I have no interest in discussing your beliefs.

    Edit: forgot to say this really has nothing to do with advanced lithography, anyways…