As someone who's been following this a little too closely - the banks are about to implode again. They cooked the books in their latest earnings report to show the highest profits ever in their April 15 earnings reports, and just issued billions of corporate bonds.
This is not financial advice - but they're looking for bagholders - pull your money out and wait for it to crash.
Positions:
112 $GME
1 $800 July 16 $GME call
My expectation is roughly autumn as shitshow start, but :shrug-outta-hecks:
Time in the market beats timing the market. Just put your shit on some variant of a stop quote so the computer software handles the work or something.
What metrics are you looking at? It's almost common knowledge that the markets are overvalued and due for a big crash, what do you think the signs will be before it hits? I used to try tracking the market for signs of collapse last summer and have no idea anymore
They've likely just been watching the still ongoing GME saga continue to uncloak and defunct decades of tools of financial warfare that until now were only known by the wonkiest of finance wonks.
I myself have embarrassingly fixated on this whole situation, and while I do have shares, it isn't simply financial interest at play here.
The way I see it, capitalism in the neoliberal era (and the birthing post-neoliberal era) operates a lot like Enron did in its demise. I'll post a more detailed comparison later if anyone is interested, but the final years were the exact same.
The GME saga has been fascinating, but I've skipped a lot of the info cuz most of it comes from either redditors trying to sell stock or corporate media trying to cover it all up. I'd love to see a post on the topic, let me know if you do
To be honest I feel that it may be a bit wasted to type it out today when a lot may change tomorrow morning. But big stuff seems to be happening. As meme-poisoned as it is, this twitter account has been the current center of discussion: https://twitter.com/dog_shill
They've overextended themselves in the exact same way as 2008 - they've given like 10x loans to hedgefunds that make insanely risky bets and are getting clapped. The first domino to really fall and the canary in the coalmine is Billionaire Bill Hwang's Archegos capital in the biggest margin call ever. Where there's one there's more. All of the big players like Warren Buffet, and Blackrock are all selling their bank stocks and are holding onto more cash than ever waiting for it to crash. Back in 08 they hyped up Leeman Brothers et al before them all collapsing.
TLDR: Nothing's changed, don't believe the bank's inflated earnings - they're looking for bagholders. Them asking for all kinds of loan money says they don't have enough money to go around.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/jim-cramer-big-bank-stocks-are-dirt-cheap-after-posting-earnings.html
is there a good link i can send to my parents to warn them? they're pretty literate but not economists.
Maybe:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3128329/archegos-chaos-raises-spectre-2008-financial-crisis
or
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/archegos-stock-market-swaps.html
along with saying that right before 2008 all the news channels were hyping banks saying everything was fine just days / hours before the actual crash.
This is not financial advice, but I would if you have index funds and whatnot. I'd hold it in cash and wait for the implosion - it's a bit cynical, but there's decent money to be made there.
the thing to do if you think stocks are about to fall is buy gold
sold at $0.01 each, would have just about paid for college if i had held :sadness-abysmal:
Moronic question but what does this mean?
1 $800 July 16 $GME call
My financial approach is usually just set-it and forget-it so calls and stuff are alien to me. I have been planning on cashing out and waiting a bit recently though, there's definitely something in the air. Thinking of holding cash and a reasonable amount of gold and silver. Maybe some bitcoin and GME too just to see what happens.
I have the option to buy 1 x 100 GameStop stock at $800 a share before July 16. Essentially, it allows me to have access to 100's of GameStop shares by paying a premium that is much less than it'd be to buy the stock outright - however if it does not go above $800 before July 16 I lose all my money (assuming I have not sold the contract to someone else). According to their mathematical models, it only has a 2% chance of being worth anything - so it was very cheap, but I believe that there is a much higher chance of it becoming in-the-money than their model. If it say squeezes and only goes to $1000 a share, I will have made $19,700 after premiums.
Oh dope. Might have to get in on that.
Edit: Not possible in the UK. This place sucks.
I made some money the first time round. Just figured I've got a little extra that it could be fun to gamble in case any more movement happens.
You do have to be careful though - while stock can go up and down, it will almost never go to 0 - but stock options will. $GME is a bit of a special case that I feel very comfortable gambling on.
For the most part, if you know what you're doing - stock options are relatively safe. Where you get into trouble is when you start playing weekly contracts - because of something known as IV crush (essentially - as the contract reaches its execution date, it's asymptotically less likely to be in-the-money and the premium value falls off a cliff) With weekly contracts you can buy them on a Wednesday for like 0.03 ($3 a contract) and make 100x your money if the underlying stock goes up just $3 - however you're much more likely to lose all that money if you hold to execution. A common strategy is to buy these, wait for a price swing that takes it to 0.06 a contract, and sell it on for 100% profit.
You can get options - the european stock ticker is $GS2C - it's traded in Frankfurt.
It's a bit of a fool's errand to try and time it exactly, I do think it's going to be within the year - sooner rather than later. There's already multiple hedgefunds going bankrupt, and the bank's holding their bags.
Anyone know how to divest from the market with a Vanguard 401k? I see that I can switch my investments to a Money Market Fund and I assume that would insulate me from the market seeing as how it didn't dip at all in march last year at the start of the pandemic
Thoughts on what this will mean for the housing market? My folks are thinking of finally refinancing because of how low the rates are.
