In the worst of the winter surge, the country was registering 250,000 new cases per day; at its peak, that surge was killing roughly 3,000 Americans each day (often a bit above, but with a few dips below). Today, we have a bit more than 100,000 new cases each day, though the numbers are still rising as part of the Delta wave. If we had reduced mortality risk by 75 percent, that would mean about 300 daily deaths. If we had reduced it by 90 percent, it would mean 120. Instead, in our seven-day average, we just passed 500.
I expect that in a lot of places people just aren't testing almost at all anymore, this is likely why there is still a high death rate even with the reduced new cases, I'd bet the actual new cases are way higher and the reduced mortality risk probably is somewhere around the 75% mark.
This feels like the Occam's razor solution for why with the same variant and comparable vaccines we're doing worse than the UK/Israel. I mean, we know that our testing is godawful.
That means we reduced the mortality rate by just 58% roughly.
someone double check my math because I did that in my head due to laziness
i know it sounds like a humblebrag but being honest
But there's a lag right? The peak of new cases and peak of deaths shouldn't have occurred together right? So what's the number going to look like a week or two from now?
So what’s the number going to look like a week or two from now?
the same. Mortality rate is total deaths/total cases.
the only way the mortality rate would get worse in a matter of days is if hospitals started running out of oxygen like in India. India's fiasco in May was 100% down to poor management + lack of resources of the UK-Kent variant, not anything to do with the new Delta one.
Yes, but by the time those later cases die, there will be even more new cases added to the list. Also this stuff was all relative (to the mortality rate of 2020) so it doesn't really matter
but yes the true mortality rate could only be figured in a hospital study or something like that.
At least part of the hidden killer is hospital capacity. An emergency room full of covid cases can't get people into surgery quickly, and some will catch it as they are weak and in recovery. People that need a routine procedure or operation end up dying because it can't be scheduled, then the whole system starts slowing down further as the nurses get shell shocked and burnt out.
I expect that in a lot of places people just aren't testing almost at all anymore, this is likely why there is still a high death rate even with the reduced new cases, I'd bet the actual new cases are way higher and the reduced mortality risk probably is somewhere around the 75% mark.
This feels like the Occam's razor solution for why with the same variant and comparable vaccines we're doing worse than the UK/Israel. I mean, we know that our testing is godawful.
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That means we reduced the mortality rate by just 58% roughly.
someone double check my math because I did that in my head due to laziness
i know it sounds like a humblebrag but being honest
But there's a lag right? The peak of new cases and peak of deaths shouldn't have occurred together right? So what's the number going to look like a week or two from now?
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deaths are up. They're just not up as quickly as they were earlier in the year (due to vaxes).
the same. Mortality rate is total deaths/total cases.
the only way the mortality rate would get worse in a matter of days is if hospitals started running out of oxygen like in India. India's fiasco in May was 100% down to poor management + lack of resources of the UK-Kent variant, not anything to do with the new Delta one.
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Yes, but by the time those later cases die, there will be even more new cases added to the list. Also this stuff was all relative (to the mortality rate of 2020) so it doesn't really matter
but yes the true mortality rate could only be figured in a hospital study or something like that.
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But isn't it younger people being hospitalized? Like hey 50% better is great but it's still pretty alarming
oh I'm not claiming 58% is a good percentage lol
My bad, I miss interpreted
got that as well.
At least part of the hidden killer is hospital capacity. An emergency room full of covid cases can't get people into surgery quickly, and some will catch it as they are weak and in recovery. People that need a routine procedure or operation end up dying because it can't be scheduled, then the whole system starts slowing down further as the nurses get shell shocked and burnt out.