Does anyone know anything about the conflict? Because I’m sort of skeptical of most things my government claim, but the Ethiopian conflict seems especially convoluted.
Depends what you mean by "explode". There's already been very serious fighting in Ethiopia for the last year. Its definitely convoluted and very polarized. John Dolan recently wrote analysis on the situation.
IMO, its a real possibility that the Abiy Ahmed government will be forced out of power. Lots of Ethiopians online deny this possibility and they deny the possibility of Addis Ababa being taken by Tigrayan forces. But they also denied the Tigrayan advance into Dessie, and later Kombolcha, as the events were happening. Its very difficult to get reliable information in real time.
If your foreign ministry is telling not to travel to Ethiopia or advising you to get out, I'd probably listen.
Edit: Also the Ethiopian gov calling on ordinary citizens to organize militias and take up arms in the defense of the government isn't a good sign for stability.
So the way it was framed in my country, we are currently sending out notifications to every single danish citizen in Ethiopia, that if they choose to stay within the country, we are no longer going to be able to guarantee their safety, and we will be unable to help them if they don't get out within a very short time.
While the capital might indeed fall, I feel they're mostly trying to avoid a repeat of the Kabul situation, where weeks to escape became hours overnight.
Idk. The best I've heard was they were in as you said Dessie and Kombolcha (300 miles away). This also has been said was part of a tactical retreat from Tigray held territory under Eritrean and Ethiopean offensives from Amhara. Also arming the the population might be a good thing for fighting against a minority military force. The joining of the Oromo liberation front is concerning but I don't know the capacity of this group or the cohesion of the OLF and the TPLF, seems to be a tenuous relationship. Considering that the TPLF is seemingly getting back channel support from the US, UN, Egypt and Sudan the disinformation may be a way to cause panic and destabilize the Ahmed government, before a planned offensive. The same has been done recently in Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela. I really don't know though. I mean our government lies all the time they said the Afghan army was stable and it folded in like 2 days.
https://youtu.be/hY1xAptUE40
https://youtu.be/RaiViGOp20A
https://youtu.be/rCtipOQEDG0
From what I understand, at least some advanced elements of the Tigray and Oromo forces have moved in closer to the capital, but are still fairly distant. That said, its hard to know for certain. Besides Oromo forces, the other big X factor is Eritrea, which would shift things if they got involved.
Regarding foreign support of Tigray forces, I've heard a lot of allegations but not seen hard evidence. Though it emerging wouldn't be surprising.
In any case, I would be extremely cautious of being in Ethiopia. This could be the high water mark for Tigray forces, but no one predicted the conflict would escalate the way it has.
To me the anti imperialist Left must support Ahmed and a unified horn of Africa. Ethiopia is a nation of 100 plus million roughly, basically a 3rd of American population. Having an independent, sovereign nation in east Africa is huge for foreign politics. My gut tells me that Addis Ababa is about to be assaulted. The Oromos have been known for their brutality including canabalizism from Breakthrough News reports . The TPLF has sterilized millions, disappeared millions over the last 30 years and are no comrades of mine. The TPLF have been in power for over 30 years until recently they're reactionary bourgeois government dressed in revolutionary attire.
