Calling my shot now that Russia moves on Ukraine first and then China feels out the western response before they move on Taiwan. Calling the first in the last year and a half of Biden’s presidency and the second in the first year of President Vince Vaughn’s eight term reign
What move would China make on Taiwan which ends with anything materially different than what they have now, which is "Taiwan insists it is the capital of China, and China mostly ignores Taiwan"?
That's why I think they'd do it last. Taiwanese unification as far as I can tell would only be for ideological purposes. Russia invading Ukraine is a more pressing issue because it presents real material benefit
The cost benefit of that only swings positively if you think the US is incapable of real retaliation. Which is why I think the western response to Russia sacking Ukraine would be the determining factor. The US needs a Suez Canal crisis first
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Calling my shot now that Russia moves on Ukraine first and then China feels out the western response before they move on Taiwan. Calling the first in the last year and a half of Biden’s presidency and the second in the first year of President Vince Vaughn’s eight term reign
What move would China make on Taiwan which ends with anything materially different than what they have now, which is "Taiwan insists it is the capital of China, and China mostly ignores Taiwan"?
That's why I think they'd do it last. Taiwanese unification as far as I can tell would only be for ideological purposes. Russia invading Ukraine is a more pressing issue because it presents real material benefit
how is neutralizing a US forward base not a material benefit?
The cost benefit of that only swings positively if you think the US is incapable of real retaliation. Which is why I think the western response to Russia sacking Ukraine would be the determining factor. The US needs a Suez Canal crisis first
The USA has many bases in the region. Wouldnt reduce capabikity enough.
Not saying it wouldn't be good but why risk full scale war?
Semiconductor manufacturing?