Not a virologist, obviously, but I don't see a path for COVID itself to spontaneously stop spreading or become cold-like.
It would need to get stuck in an evolutionary trough of causing far more mild disease, while also providing lasting immunity after infection that is effective against variants, and so far it's doing the opposite of both those things.
Here's what I'm thinking so far about the future. Paxlovid works really well. Maybe once it gets real bad (most people on infection #15 or so, and thus most people now at non-negligible risk of death upon infection thanks to covid-caused conditions) everyone who can afford it will be on paxlovid most of the time. Of course, there is a concern then about the evolutionary pressure on covid to escape antivirals. There's also nasal vaccines that boost antibodies locally to prevent spread, but I saw something about them causing anosmia in trials, so might not pan out. There's also some nasal rinses that may prevent infection. Upgrading ventilation will cut indoor cases by maybe ~80% once people finally start demanding it, and there's some UV light stuff that may help indoors as well (don't know as much about that though).
A vaccine that stops transmission would be a blessing, but I'm not sure if that's even possible for covid. IIRC it isn't possible for all diseases. Personally, since I already have long covid, I am hoping to eventually live in a small community that is insular and committed to local zero-covid. I have seen multiple people float this idea already online - someone has got to start it eventually, and when they do, I'm there.
Very informative post, thank you for putting all of that together!
Upgrading ventilation will cut indoor cases by maybe ~80% once people finally start demanding it, and there’s some UV light stuff that may help indoors as well (don’t know as much about that though).
It feels like the ventilation and UV stuff (both of which I've heard brought up before) should be no-brainers, but I'm honestly not confident it will happen broadly since, as the US's shitty infrastructure indicates, upgrading and equipping buildings with things costs money and there's no profit to be made. I'd love to be wrong, though.
Personally, since I already have long covid, I am hoping to eventually live in a small community that is insular and committed to local zero-covid. I have seen multiple people float this idea already online - someone has got to start it eventually, and when they do, I’m there
I'm so sorry you are dealing with long COVID. :meow-hug: I hope as more time has passed from infection that you've been able to recover at least partially from your symptoms. As for the zero-covid community, seems like a good idea as this pandemic lingers on, just tell me where to sign up when it happens and I'm there!
I agree with you on the ventilation. Honestly, at this point, I'm not confident this country could successfully initiate a nationwide campaign to upgrade infrastructure like that if it tried. What I do expect to see is private businesses taking the initiative to suppress indoor transmission, to reduce frequency of illness among employees (it can't all be suppressed by refusing sick days as some covid infections are just too brutal to work through, and visibly sick service workers can be upsetting to customers) and to advertise to people who would otherwise be reluctant to consume due to having some level of anxiety about covid (this population I expect to gradually and surreptitiously increase as direct health consequences of infection reverberate among social circles). The inequity of the pandemic will continue with richer schools and fancier offices getting better ventilation, UV lights, and other gadgets - a trend we're already seeing.
Thank you for the condolences. I am thankfully doing a lot better than I was two years ago, though definitely not the same as before my infection. I hope you make it through this as healthy as possible :meow-hug:
Not a virologist, obviously, but I don't see a path for COVID itself to spontaneously stop spreading or become cold-like. It would need to get stuck in an evolutionary trough of causing far more mild disease, while also providing lasting immunity after infection that is effective against variants, and so far it's doing the opposite of both those things.
Here's what I'm thinking so far about the future. Paxlovid works really well. Maybe once it gets real bad (most people on infection #15 or so, and thus most people now at non-negligible risk of death upon infection thanks to covid-caused conditions) everyone who can afford it will be on paxlovid most of the time. Of course, there is a concern then about the evolutionary pressure on covid to escape antivirals. There's also nasal vaccines that boost antibodies locally to prevent spread, but I saw something about them causing anosmia in trials, so might not pan out. There's also some nasal rinses that may prevent infection. Upgrading ventilation will cut indoor cases by maybe ~80% once people finally start demanding it, and there's some UV light stuff that may help indoors as well (don't know as much about that though).
A vaccine that stops transmission would be a blessing, but I'm not sure if that's even possible for covid. IIRC it isn't possible for all diseases. Personally, since I already have long covid, I am hoping to eventually live in a small community that is insular and committed to local zero-covid. I have seen multiple people float this idea already online - someone has got to start it eventually, and when they do, I'm there.
Very informative post, thank you for putting all of that together!
It feels like the ventilation and UV stuff (both of which I've heard brought up before) should be no-brainers, but I'm honestly not confident it will happen broadly since, as the US's shitty infrastructure indicates, upgrading and equipping buildings with things costs money and there's no profit to be made. I'd love to be wrong, though.
I'm so sorry you are dealing with long COVID. :meow-hug: I hope as more time has passed from infection that you've been able to recover at least partially from your symptoms. As for the zero-covid community, seems like a good idea as this pandemic lingers on, just tell me where to sign up when it happens and I'm there!
I agree with you on the ventilation. Honestly, at this point, I'm not confident this country could successfully initiate a nationwide campaign to upgrade infrastructure like that if it tried. What I do expect to see is private businesses taking the initiative to suppress indoor transmission, to reduce frequency of illness among employees (it can't all be suppressed by refusing sick days as some covid infections are just too brutal to work through, and visibly sick service workers can be upsetting to customers) and to advertise to people who would otherwise be reluctant to consume due to having some level of anxiety about covid (this population I expect to gradually and surreptitiously increase as direct health consequences of infection reverberate among social circles). The inequity of the pandemic will continue with richer schools and fancier offices getting better ventilation, UV lights, and other gadgets - a trend we're already seeing.
Thank you for the condolences. I am thankfully doing a lot better than I was two years ago, though definitely not the same as before my infection. I hope you make it through this as healthy as possible :meow-hug: