October 17th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary!
October 18th's update is here! TLDR? Here's the summary!
Next update will be next Friday, but I'll be poking around the thread during that time. Next thread will go up on Monday like usual.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists, for the “buh Zeleski is a jew?!?!” people.
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
Putin micro managed this war far to long. It should of been over months ago
Let the man cook
If you try to cook it all too quickly you risk burning everything. (aka nuclear war) You need time to let the flavors comingle. Making sure the sanctions, foreign aid, and weapons shipments are all failing at the same time is a delicate balancing act.
War is like a stew.
This is "sports match" level analysis that is full of NATOid brain worms. Putin has managed to keep WW3 and more importantly world wide nuclear annihilation at bay so far and he did that by moving slowly. Don't criticise that.
It would also have undoubtedly had significantly higher civilian casualty rates (not to mention RAF casualties) Civilian casualties in this war have not just "bucked historical trends" they call into question every military conflict of the modern era. They have changed the paradigm of all future warfare. If the west ever tries to engage in their traditional style of "shock and awe" war again they will be (rightfully) denounced as terrorists and condemned because a new example has been set.
This is almost as big a deal as the first courtship amongst prehistoric humans. Where once r*pe was "just the way humans procreated" after the first courtship, unconsentual relations became recognised as crude, immoral, barbaric, and generally loathsome. "Could'a just hit her over the head with a stick would been over months ago."
And then there is the effects of prolonged sanctions of Europe. If it was over in the first few months Europe wouldn't be facing angry mobs right now. They wouldn't be staring down winter without cheap LPG for heating and industry. Furthermore the international community likely wouldn't have come round to anti-NATO view of things if Russia had gone in hard and fast and killed a ton of people.
I'm sorry, but what kind of nonsense is this? Not starting a nuclear war is a pretty low bar. The West isn't going to throw nukes around over Ukraine, so all Putin had to do was not order the use of Nukes. I don't see a reason why he would in the first place.
Furthermore, since the start things have only continually escalated on both sides. You're ascribing Putin way too much agency over the situation if you imagine WW3 hasn't started (yet) because of his clever conduct. Putin has not succeeded in stopping overall escaltion so far.
The reality is that if Russia had been able to capture Kiev and remove the Zelensky government at the start, NATO wouldn't really have been able to do anything about it. Large scale military support would not have been a feasible option. Naturally there would have been sanctions, outrage, and covert support, but that's nothing new.
Had Russia been a little more ruthless from the start, they might have well succeeded in decapitating the Ukrainian government. The over-all casualties would likely be much lower, though more concentrated, then they will be at the end of this war.
Once again, I think you're ascribing Putin too much agency over the situation if you think he set out to start a war in Ukraine so that there would be angry mobs in Europe. If the West did not sanction gas and oil, do you really think Putin wouldn't be more than happy to keep selling to them? The guy of whom hardliners in Russia say that he is hopelessly romantic about the West?
I don't see a reason why the West wouldn't have done the same sanctions if Putin was succesful in taking Kiev. Europe reacted out of moral outrage, not real politik. Once those sanctions are in place they are tied to the credibility of the people in power (in their self-perception) and not easily reversed without something to show for it.
Finally, I'd say the reaction of the rest of the world was predictable and has more to do with the relative rise of China and decline of the US than the conduct of the RAF. Every country has their own interests that are not primarily determined by the particulars of war-fighting in some other part of the world.
Say that to the half million civilians that died in Afghanistan and Iraq insurgency wars. Russia having to police a nation of 40 million filled to bursting with well armed and trained Nazi insurgents with broad public support would not be quick, easy or without massive casualties both civilian and Russian. The best thing zelensky ever did was get all those nazis to put on uniforms and march towards their end on the front lines.
While I'm sure Russia could have decapitated the Ukraine government and occupied the whole country it would have likely taken every ounce of their military power for decades to clean up the mess. During that time Putin would have lost significant amounts of respect both at home and abroad. Russia is only doing so well because it is supported by the people in the occupied territory. As we saw in Afghanistan fighting an insurgency is nearly impossible and they were literally farmers using AKs. Ukraine's Insugency would be tech savy, well armed, and have all the resources of the CIA.
You aren't giving Putin enough credit. You don't get where he is without being able to see all the angles.
There's no realistic end in sight for this war, it is not at all unlikely that the amount of people killed in this conflict will exceed those of Iraq and Afghanistan. Civilian casualties might be lower, but at this point we're dealing with two mobilised nations. It is still an enormous human tragedy.
I don't disagree that occupation wasn't an option, but there are other options that do include taking out the Ukrainian government.
But my point is that this invasion didn't happen because Russia had a position of strength. They were pushed by the West to act because they thought not acting would be worse. That doesn't mean Putin lacks a sophisticated understanding of the means at his disposal.
But the fact that Russia has to keep escalating, to keep doing more things NATO would do day one of an invasion, telegraphs that they are not fully in control. Generally, the Russians have acted quite cool-headed, but they aren't where they thought or hoped they would be.
Putin is obviously a very skilled leader, but he is not infallible and he did not invent the best thing since people invented consensual sex.
Russia wasn't pushed into this they were goaded... for years... and for years they have been planning how to best handle the situation. Putin deserves a significant amount of the credit for that plan. His team are thinking dozens of moves in advance. USA can't really do that because they have a new president and administration every few years each with their own plans.
You can't have it both ways. A nation doesn't cease to be if you kill its president. If Russia took out a significant part of UA's government they would have to occupy UA or it turns really messy internally and they invite peace keepers from NATO. A direct attack on government officials would turn Russia into a pariah. The human individuals in neutral/friendly governments react in fear as if it was a personal threat. Killing your neighbour's government is a imperialist conqueror move not a liberators move. Even USA gave Saddam a show trial before they executed him. Russia only gets the global south, China, and India on its side (buying its sanctioned exports) by playing a liberator.
Support for Ukraine has begun to wane. USA's midterms will cripple any new aid bills and the lack of heating and energy will finish the EU off. I'd be surprised if the fighting is still going by spring.
Judging from the scale and quick timing of the response to the Crimea bridge attack you can be sure it was planned well before the triggering event. You can't fire 100+ missiles and drones in 5 days without a plan and even still there were only 19 civilian deaths during that retaliation. Russia is still in charge of its escalations and the pace of this war. They aren't "fully in control" but nobody is ever.
I stand by the idea that "Minimal collateral human damage in war" really will be the greatest thing since "Widespread (no pun intended) consensual reproduction."