Prepping the battlefield for removing Biden.
55% of respondents say they would vote for Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, compared to 29% who say they would vote for DeSantis. Other Republicans receiving support include former Vice President Mike Pence (6%) and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (3%).
55% of respondents say they expect Trump to be the nominee regardless of whom they support, compared to 35% who say they expect DeSantis to be the nominee.
58% of Democrat primary or caucus voters say Biden should be the party's nominee in 2024.
42% of respondents say it should be someone else.
44% of voters say they approve of the job Biden is doing compared to 48% who disapprove.
If Trump wins the primary, the GOP doubles down on being a unified party around him. All the institutional figures either kissed the ring or went to the wilderness after 2016; you'd see the same thing again. Trump also probably has the best odds in a general election.
If DeSantis or someone else wins, it's a split party where you'll have Trump dead-enders vs. neocons/normal-passing fascists. DeSantis is also more likely to lose the general.
I see the latter as weaker opposition than the former.
I don't think this happens from winning a primary, only if he goes on to win the general.
Honestly if Trump wins the primary but get beat again in the general I think that would be the end of him and even his movement would lose a lot of influence
The conventional wisdom used to be that if you lost twice in a row you don't deserve another chance at an election. But since the Democratic Party loves politicians whose entire platform is "I lost a close election, and then I lost another by a larger margin" I'm not sure how the script goes anymore.