Best timeline, counteroffensive is a spectacular failure. Germany and maybe France reach sufficient internal support to seek rapprochement with Russia. All the countries that recently joined NATO have to double-down or be really fucking embarassed. Germany and maybe France start to distance themselves from NATO to continue rapprochement with Russia. Further decrease in the reach of the NATO-imperial apparatus.
OR worst timeline, we get a Polish YOLO....
If Biden loses the war, the libs will melt down for one day, then pretend that either the whole thing never happened or that it isn’t relevant anymore. Then they will say that Trump is worse because he didn’t stick it to Putin, he’s actually Putin’s puppet!