https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/the-hard-reality-ukraines-last-gasp-offensive-has-failed/
The fact that these kinds of articles are increasingly appearing in western media is a strong indication that US is going to pull out soon, and the public is being primed for that now.
Don't worry, the US has plenty of experience with stay-behind groups
That they do, however I expect this will become as much a problem for Europe as for Russia and very likely more so. The best Ukraine can hope for at this point is that it's going to become a dysfunctional rump state that's land locked and has lost most of its productive regions. The west will have a choice of either pouring billions into propping it up, or letting it collapse and then having a huge refugee crisis on their hands. Europe is certainly in no position to absorb these refugees meaning that it's stuck between a rock and a hard place. With the economic situation deteriorating and Europe already being in recession, it's hard to keep pouring money into propping up Ukraine, while letting it collapse means having to deal with the refugees.
Furthermore, the fascists in Ukraine will inevitably feel betrayed by the west and they have undoubtedly been working with far right groups in Europe this whole time. We know that huge volumes of weapons that the west sends end up on the black market, and are likely all over Europe at this point. That seems like a recipe for some really bad shit happening going forward.
Meanwhile, I expect that areas that end up being folded into Russia will be fine economically, and there will be no grassroots support for any sort of terrorism there. It's very likely that we'll see a similar situation to Chechnya develop where people realized they got played by the west and are now quite resentful for having been used that way.
letting it collapse and then having a huge refugee crisis on their hands. Europe is certainly in no position to absorb these refugees meaning that it’s stuck between a rock and a hard place
Will it affect USA and UK, as the main instigators of the whole shitshow? Ruining continental western Europe seems to be part of the plan. A refugee "crisis" will also help stir reactionary movements. For now they've been willing to tolerate Ukrainian refugees over Syrian or African ones (for obvious reasons), but I doubt it will last. There's already been enraged videos and posts online about "ungrateful, lazy" Ukrainian migrants in Poland and such. Which, again, helps the interests of the instigators.
similar situation to Chechnya develop where people realized they got played by the west and are now quite resentful for having been used that way
Chechnya has seen flares of violence long after the war was officially over. For example here. And after that, well. I don't know any Chechens personally, so I obviously cannot speak for the mood over there. In western Russia, however, where I live, there's still a lot of resentment towards Caucasus people. Videos of Kadyrov dancing while being showered with money (not exaggerating) don't help, and neither do stories in media about Caucasus (or suspected to be such) men starting fights in Moscow subway, or scalping a young man in Elektrostal (again, not exaggerating).
What I'm saying is, don't underestimate the tensions. There's plenty of shit for stay-behind groups to exploit, and the chaos they'll create will only serve the interests of the bastards who started it all. While they, for now, remain insulated from consequences
UK is definitely having serious problems now, and they are still very reliant on the EU economy to stay afloat. So, they're definitely going to be affected whether they realize it or not. US will likely not see much of an impact in the short term, but Europe crashing economically will drag them down as well in the long run. We're basically seeing two geopolitical and economic blocs forming around BRICS and G7. Right now things aren't looking good for the G7 side.
And I get your point that things with Chechnya aren't perfect, but the situation does seem to be improving steadily. It's certainly far better today than it was in the 90s. I'm not saying that there won't be difficulties after the war ends, but I don't think any of the problems are insurmountable. Ultimately people want peace, and they want to a safe environment to live and raise their kids in.
Unfortunately, I agree that those who are responsible for all this are likely never going to be held accountable.
Imagine if Ukraine had just followed the Minsk agreement? They would not have lost any further territory, no civilians bombed in Donbas, no thousands of their people marched to their deaths in a suicidal offensive. They would have been a trading hub between EU and Russia. And most of all, THERE WOULD BE PEACE!
Now they will lose big chunks of territory, have lost thousands of people, the economy is non-existent and destroyed infrastructure. The amount of blood in the hands of the Kiev regime is horrendous. They sacrificed their country to appease western capitalists. I really wish Ukrainians could understand what is going on and turn their guns against their government and put those people on trial for what they did.
imagine if Boris didn't go to Kiev and Lloyd Austin didn't instruct Zelensky to break the Turkey deal in April , 2022.
You also forgot, the few things still owned by the state have now been privatized by western capital to try and fund this foolish endeavour. When the west pulls out, not only will they have lost their land, homes, and lives, they'll be in a worse financial position because the state won't have the means to provide and will be relying on western capital. In the end, what's left of Ukraine becomes another neo-colonial capitalist hellscape for the workers while western capital sits back and counts new stacks.
Yes that is correct as well. Ukraine is going to be a much worse place and easily the poorest country in Europe.
They will soon be discarded as is the fate of any American puppet, as they have outlived their usefulness to cause damage and death to Russia at an acceptable level.
You’re spot on there. I think even the US war machine will stop its funding once not enough Russians are being killed. That was the whole point of provoking the war. To drain their manpower and resources with a long war. This counteroffensive seemed like it was their chance to take back territory and keep the war going. It failed really hard and I doubt they will be able to make another offensive this big. Russia will also soon have an offensive of their own with Ukraine now seemingly close to depleted. At that point the US will abandon them like all their other puppets who lost the proxy wars in the past.
Reminds me a lot of Guaido when he tried to stir an overthrow of Venezuela. It seemed like such a desperate move that had no chance of working but he was likely pressured to do so by the US since he wasn’t making any real gains in control of the government. After he failed, they gave up on stating he is the “real” Venezuelan president and moved on to their next target.
Considering they managed to empty most NATO countries inventory of military equipment (and will have to be restocked), the USA probably still considers the Ukraine situation a success.
This is going to sound hyperbolic, but do you think NATO is exhausting every little bit of “normal” military equipment they have so they can better justify using nukes? As in nukes are all that’s left of their defences so the general public are less opposed to using them as their last resort.
Nah, they're clearing out their stock so the yanks can sell them more.
They don't need to, the terminally online shibas will spin it in no time
True, I hate NAFO so much. The fact that real life politicians and political figures are encouraging and even joining it is so embarrassing.
