https://archive.is/5ewph
American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.
So what's next? A Vietnam and Afghanistan style rapid collapse of the US-supported government? Something entirely different?
1975 Fall of Saigon
2021 Fall of Kabul
202X Fall of Kyiv...?
It must be quite the shocking turn of events for those who were convinced Ukraine was going to win.
I think it might get partitioned like Germany did. It would help the Western narrative engine to draw those parallels and it would allow the West to continue operating and building power while requiring Russia's constant attention.
Russia cannot occupy Ukraine and is unlikely to physically invade and occupy Kyiv directly. It is also unlikely that Russia will spend the resources to do to Ukraine what the US did to Korea.
While Russia is unlikely to occupy all of Ukraine, they're certainly capable of demilitarizing Ukraine and putting in a Russia friendly government in charge of whatever remains of Ukraine in the end. Ultimately, the core motivation for the war was to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Stopping short of that would not solve the underlying problem.
I think that's actually going to be pretty difficult. It would be a true triumph of counterintelligence to pull that off.
It's worth keeping in mind that this was a war of attrition. Everybody who was motivated to fight against Russia signed up to join the army early on. Most of those people are now dead. The AFU is now reduced to grabbing people off the street and forcing them to fight. Most people who are left in Ukraine just want the war to be over and they don't actually care whether Ukraine is going to be under Russian or western influence going forward. The only option NATO has left at this point is to go directly to war with Russia.
