This has been quite a day.... Up until this thread with the Five Thirty Eight map and now looking at all this, I am beginning to truly wonder if he has a real chance of winning. On the map that Five Thirty Eight has, if you play around with it and just give Trump one of the swing states, the entire thing shifts from Biden at 88% to Trump at over 60%. Color in Florida for Trump and watch the entire map flip for him.
Maybe Biden's lead really is overrated and Five Thirty Eight themselves got so much criticism for the 2016 models that they are running a very flawed model here making it seem Biden has it in the bag.
They recently have been running articles about the potential of Trump winning Minnesota and Wisconsin, which more or less goes to show how the Democrats are running a crappy campaign to the point they could lose one of those states if not both of them. Five Thirty Eight's defense of this is to just yell "these were never safe blue states anyway!" but it still proves a point there that their calculations and models are not reflecting the greater reality. Both of those states opened up after the riots and Dems horrible response to all of the police brutality.
This race might not really be a blow out then. I can actually see Trump taking it now as I am reminded that the enthusiasm gap is also very real. I live in a deep red state but it don't matter, I never see any signs for Biden or hear anything positive about him locally. Trump on the other hand? His base is louder and more rabid than they were in 2016.
Holy shit, I didn't know it was that high.
This has been quite a day.... Up until this thread with the Five Thirty Eight map and now looking at all this, I am beginning to truly wonder if he has a real chance of winning. On the map that Five Thirty Eight has, if you play around with it and just give Trump one of the swing states, the entire thing shifts from Biden at 88% to Trump at over 60%. Color in Florida for Trump and watch the entire map flip for him.
Maybe Biden's lead really is overrated and Five Thirty Eight themselves got so much criticism for the 2016 models that they are running a very flawed model here making it seem Biden has it in the bag.
They recently have been running articles about the potential of Trump winning Minnesota and Wisconsin, which more or less goes to show how the Democrats are running a crappy campaign to the point they could lose one of those states if not both of them. Five Thirty Eight's defense of this is to just yell "these were never safe blue states anyway!" but it still proves a point there that their calculations and models are not reflecting the greater reality. Both of those states opened up after the riots and Dems horrible response to all of the police brutality.
This race might not really be a blow out then. I can actually see Trump taking it now as I am reminded that the enthusiasm gap is also very real. I live in a deep red state but it don't matter, I never see any signs for Biden or hear anything positive about him locally. Trump on the other hand? His base is louder and more rabid than they were in 2016.
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