One person can't make a coup. Coups take a huge amount of political capital, and not with random poor people, with secret police, media, national bourgeoisie, generals. The risk is there, but I just don't think Trump has anywhere near the political capital necessary to do a coup. Hell, he doesn't even have a coordinated brown shirt style paramilitary.
All this lib hysteria comes from the fact that they live in a world of pure ideology. They just have zero ability to do a material analysis.
He has 70 million people firmly behind him, not to mention all the boog Q nuts which make up a substantial part of that. It's not a coup as in it's not a military junta organizing behind the scenes to oust Biden and force him into exile, but the warning signs are absolutely there. I don't know how any leftist could claim otherwise considering that power brokers in Latin America would immediately be crying foul and getting their ghoul neolibs at the MSM to spout off about how we need military intervention
Like I said, the risk is there. It doesn't really matter if he has 70 million supporters for two reasons:
There are 70 million people to counter his 70 million.
His 70 million are not well coordinated.
A successful coup would require decisive action. For a paramilitary coup to be successful they would need take over media outlets, legislatures, and also quickly purge the left to stop a leftist counter revolution. All while fending of a similarly sized if not larger radical left. His paramilitary support is not NEARLY coordinated enough to pull that off. He needs real military or secret police support to do that. Not to mention the fact that a shit show like that would be a foreign policiy DISASTER. Japan, South Korea and probably even European allies would run for the hills. The only significant ally that would probably stay the course would be Canada. A lot of good that wil do to counter China.
If Trump is going to stay in power, he has to do it "legally" by manipulating the electoral college. I think this is a very real possibility, but he still has no real way to garner support with the secret police and military moving forward. These institutions depend greatly on US soft power and Trump would only be further alienating them with this move. CIA and DoD have every reason in the world, materially, to support a Biden presidency and absolutely no sane reason to support Trump aside from potentially ideologically, which is not something I would expect to see outside of the rank and file of major institutions.
Not seen many democrat supporting Militias. Moot point though as you say if he does go for it it will all be done legally, the dems are wet paper bags and will offer only token resistance if he gets a legal victory through the court.
counterpoint: trump's side is infinitely more fanatical, more dedicated, more united and more armed, and definitely willing to give up their time to drive into cities for protests
I agree, but I don't think that it's likely to keep him in power via a decsive power grab. I do think it's very likely to lead to widespread violence similar to the troubles in Ireland on a scale orders of magnitude larger.
I think you could make the point that that would create enough of a smoke screen to keep him in the white house, but I think at that point you have chaos on a level where basically anything could happen.
My guess would be that at some point the DoD would just say enough is enough and either take control directly, or take control through a puppet president.
It's all just speculation though at the end of the day, and frankly I don't think any of this changes what the strategy should be on the left aside from probably a far greater emphasis on personal and online safety than was necessary in the past.
I wouldn't say that his 70 million is worse than the dem's 70 million, his base is much more fanatical and better armed. If Trump really bought into his own ego I can see him deluding himself into thinking that he can pull this off.
I totally agree that he might be delusional enough to try it, but I doubt the rest of the republican party is, and to go on without them is just suicide.
Still he might be that crazy in which case he will just fail in my assessment.
One person can't make a coup. Coups take a huge amount of political capital, and not with random poor people, with secret police, media, national bourgeoisie, generals. The risk is there, but I just don't think Trump has anywhere near the political capital necessary to do a coup. Hell, he doesn't even have a coordinated brown shirt style paramilitary.
All this lib hysteria comes from the fact that they live in a world of pure ideology. They just have zero ability to do a material analysis.
He has 70 million people firmly behind him, not to mention all the boog Q nuts which make up a substantial part of that. It's not a coup as in it's not a military junta organizing behind the scenes to oust Biden and force him into exile, but the warning signs are absolutely there. I don't know how any leftist could claim otherwise considering that power brokers in Latin America would immediately be crying foul and getting their ghoul neolibs at the MSM to spout off about how we need military intervention
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Like I said, the risk is there. It doesn't really matter if he has 70 million supporters for two reasons:
There are 70 million people to counter his 70 million.
His 70 million are not well coordinated.
A successful coup would require decisive action. For a paramilitary coup to be successful they would need take over media outlets, legislatures, and also quickly purge the left to stop a leftist counter revolution. All while fending of a similarly sized if not larger radical left. His paramilitary support is not NEARLY coordinated enough to pull that off. He needs real military or secret police support to do that. Not to mention the fact that a shit show like that would be a foreign policiy DISASTER. Japan, South Korea and probably even European allies would run for the hills. The only significant ally that would probably stay the course would be Canada. A lot of good that wil do to counter China.
If Trump is going to stay in power, he has to do it "legally" by manipulating the electoral college. I think this is a very real possibility, but he still has no real way to garner support with the secret police and military moving forward. These institutions depend greatly on US soft power and Trump would only be further alienating them with this move. CIA and DoD have every reason in the world, materially, to support a Biden presidency and absolutely no sane reason to support Trump aside from potentially ideologically, which is not something I would expect to see outside of the rank and file of major institutions.
Not seen many democrat supporting Militias. Moot point though as you say if he does go for it it will all be done legally, the dems are wet paper bags and will offer only token resistance if he gets a legal victory through the court.
Militias? No. The ability to mobilizes 100s of thousands of protestors in virtually every city in the country? Yes.
counterpoint: trump's side is infinitely more fanatical, more dedicated, more united and more armed, and definitely willing to give up their time to drive into cities for protests
I agree, but I don't think that it's likely to keep him in power via a decsive power grab. I do think it's very likely to lead to widespread violence similar to the troubles in Ireland on a scale orders of magnitude larger.
I think you could make the point that that would create enough of a smoke screen to keep him in the white house, but I think at that point you have chaos on a level where basically anything could happen.
My guess would be that at some point the DoD would just say enough is enough and either take control directly, or take control through a puppet president.
It's all just speculation though at the end of the day, and frankly I don't think any of this changes what the strategy should be on the left aside from probably a far greater emphasis on personal and online safety than was necessary in the past.
I wouldn't say that his 70 million is worse than the dem's 70 million, his base is much more fanatical and better armed. If Trump really bought into his own ego I can see him deluding himself into thinking that he can pull this off.
I totally agree that he might be delusional enough to try it, but I doubt the rest of the republican party is, and to go on without them is just suicide.
Still he might be that crazy in which case he will just fail in my assessment.
why? It's not suicide if it's successful
It's all speculation. If your analysis is that he has what he needs to be successful, then that's great. I am just giving my opinion. Time will tell.
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Oh, it could very well escalate, it just don't think it will escalate towards anything resembling a "normal" second term for Trump.