Figures and previews from the forthcoming IPCC AR6 (due out in July) are starting to come out. They're not looking great. Limiting warming to 2 degrees C or less is now virtually impossible, as even the most optimistic net carbon zero projections put us at 2.1 degrees of warming by 2100. More realistic target is now in the 2.5-3.5 degrees of warming range, which is likely to be extremely bad for a lot of people.

The authors of the IPCC report suggest that only an "immediate and radical transformation" of the global economy and governance would allow us to avoid the worst of the oncoming climate catastrophe. This kind of language is a marked difference from earlier IPCC reports, and reflects a growing sense of urgency and impending doom within the climatology community broadly.

  • JoesFrackinJack [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    Saying it now, but California is going to have a really bad fire season, again.

    Extraordinarily dry conditions for the Sierra approaching Summer, “the lowest soil moisture on record in the Tahoe Basin since 2004.” Water resource and fire season implications look challenging ahead.

    For the Sierra Nevada the lack of snow + extremely dry Fall has led to the lowest soil moisture on record in the Tahoe Basin since 2004. This will reduce spring runoff, exacerbate summer drought impacts, and heighten fire danger. Fingers crossed for soaking spring rains.

    https://twitter.com/RobMayeda/status/1377709444285403138

    I have a graph someone made from UC Berkeley climate department that shows within the last 15 years, the biggest and worse fires have all happened in recorded history. https://imgur.com/a/8tQf5vd it has two pics, one is a gif and the other shows the end result. This is one of the most compelling things I've seen someone make visually. The squares over the plotted points were used to show which year had the worst fires recorded.

    • OperationOgre [he/him, they/them]
      ·
      3 years ago

      It's not just California either. Pretty much the entire western US will have worse and worse fire seasons from now on. You don't hear about Idaho or Utah or Nevada as much because they're flyover states, but the wildfires and smoke are terrible every year here, especially with the population boom.

    • aqwxcvbnji [none/use name]
      ·
      3 years ago

      I have a graph someone made from UC Berkeley climate department that shows within the last 15 years, the biggest and worse fires have all happened in recorded history. https://imgur.com/a/8tQf5vd it has two pics, one is a gif and the other shows the end result. This is one of the most compelling things I’ve seen someone make visually. The squares over the plotted points were used to show which year had the worst fires recorded.

      What's the source of this? I'd love to use it.

      • JoesFrackinJack [he/him]
        ·
        3 years ago

        Hey thanks for asking, here is the source plotted by Dr. Robert Rohde, Lead Scientist for Berkeley Earth https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1061932205327429632?s=20