People always talk about a potential WW3 everytime there is even the slightest confrontation between powerful countries but it never happens. At this point I'm convinced there will never be a WW3.
People always talk about a potential WW3 everytime there is even the slightest confrontation between powerful countries but it never happens. At this point I'm convinced there will never be a WW3.
It would almost necessarily be America that starts it, which narrows things down a bit. Given that the empire decline continues, I think there's at least two scenarios here: America goes somewhat gently into that good night (and then either continues being the world's treat consumer with a few changes to make sure that boiling seawater doesn't kill us all, or it balkanizes and there's regional warfare and corporate fiefdoms and shit); or America rages against the dying of the light in a desperate attempt to hold on.
I'm gonna assume that WW3 means that nukes will be used, because I feel like, in a conventional war that's "agreed upon" beforehand, if any nuclear country was close to defeat it's gonna make the calculation, and at least one of them would go "yep, fuck it, fire the nukes, we've gotta do something or we're all gonna be killed in our war rooms" and that would start the chain reaction.
To me, the central question of it is "What do capitalists think is in their best interest?", and the answer to that question may change based on how dire things get. Right now, there's no reason whatsoever for them to destroy civilization and hide in their concrete bunkers with robot slaves for the rest of their lives, as there's not really any existential threats to them. If the proles are banging on their doors then maybe they pull the trigger on the nuclear missiles, but by that point, who would they aim at? Themselves, to kill everybody else around them in the ultimate revenge play for losing their extremely cushy lives? And if we're at that point, who would be at their stations to fire the missiles?
At the end of the day, my instincts are "no". That's not necessarily the same question as "will a nuke ever be dropped in wartime ever again?" because they might try some shit in Iran or the DPRK or whatever, but nuclear armageddon is off the table, unless the US does something exceedingly stupid in Russia or China. I would hope cooler heads would prevail in that situation, but y'know, there were several close calls throughout the Cold War, so you're really gambling with the probabilities here.
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Truly the Dark Souls of... wait...
I guess a third scenario is that America manages to keep its empire going and climate change ends up being even worse than pessimistic estimates, leading to an inhospitable wasteland where there are only the remains of structures, half-eroded and coated into microplastics being slowly eaten by bacteria. And like, there's a dude with a really cool sword who can summon lightning and shit.
I think this precludes a Russia-style decline, in which the US just kinda eats itself in a Civil War. Not enough coordination or capacity to launch a nuclear strike because all the various military factions are just in a scramble for power.