I'm with you on this. It doesn't matter what Biden thinks, it is a matter of the people who are losing power as a result of China.
They will continue to pursue this path. It was never about whether China will invade but about various powerful people WANTING China to invade as an excuse for US escalation.
I get where this POV comes from and don't even necessarily disagree with it, but to me I guess it seems like the wildcard in the new Cold War is the fact that a big chunk of the ruling class in the US (just like in the EU and the rest of the West) is invested in maintaining some level of peaceful commercial relations with China to the extent that any major change would be catastrophic. Like I genuinely wonder to what degree the globalization of capital and deindustrialization has basically tied the hands the parts of the ruling class who do want to escalate at any cost.
I wonder if China's leaders are more content with the status quo than they claim. Why wouldn't they be? The status quo is pretty alright for China.
If they let the rest of the world think that's something they really want, they can make their opponents struggle with them over it, make concessions, and pursue their real goals (growth, Belt&Road, etc.) in peace.
China has literally all the time in the world. If reunification is going to happen, they won't need a war to do it - Taiwan's economy is already tied to the mainland, and that'll only get stronger as the empire collapses. Yanks are frothing at the mouth for war and trying their best to escalate wherever they can, all China has to do to respond is... not engage.
I once saw someone claim that the CPC mostly say what they say about Taiwan to keep the more nationalist parts of their poulation happy and supportive and, as you say, are actually quite content with the status quo.
I have no idea if this holds any water or not so won't be arguing neither for or against it, your comment just happened to remind me of it. Maybe someone else with more knowledge on the subject will come along.
The "nationalist Chinese" were exiled to Taiwan. That's how the whole thing started.
There are many nationalists and liberals on the mainland, even within the party is far from purely (some would argue it's not even heavily) communist.
In the context it was brought up "nationalist" was basically shorthand for "people on the mainland who are pro-CPC and consider taking back Taiwan a matter of national pride"
I wonder if China’s leaders are more content with the status quo than they claim. Why wouldn’t they be? The status quo is pretty alright for China.
The status quo is soft reunification because every year, Taiwan's economy gets further intertwined with the Mainland's economy. At a certain point, Taiwan is going to be part of China one way or another even if the political realities don't completely line up with economy realities. Add to that close proximity (the ROC has territory within the coastline of the PRC) and near identical culture (no matter how much Taiwanese separatists want to deny it), and Taiwan being reunited with China is inevitable outside of some catastrophe that the US is gambling on happening.
If your economy is completely reliant on another country and you don't have a seat in the UN while that other country does, you aren't a sovereign polity. At best, you're an extremely autonomous region of that other country.
Not sure I agree with that. Lots of countries have economies entangled with larger neighbors, yet are independent.
No, it is not, and the rest of Europe isn't much more independent.
2012: "Trump is a Russian asset"
2022: "Biden has been hypnotized by inscrutable eastern magicks"
Wtf, Chairman Xi is canceled for not committing to immediate reunification.
You may not like it, but this is what peak adults-in-the-room looks like
So...I don't know how this plays out and I don't want to dox anyone but:
Tensions about the one china policy aren't just rising between the governments but also within the corporate sector. Suffice it to say I know a dude who is trying to land a MASSIVE client who is based in China and the United States and the one china policy is causing serious headaches because as a nonstarter they want this dude's company to adopt the policy of Taiwan as a china province not just for their own business but as company policy for EVERY client this dude works with in order to sign. There have apparently been lawyers bickering back and forth on these sales calls not from this dudes company but within this client companies US and China branhces......its kind of wild to hear about.
All propaganda, just resetting the pins is all this is. CHINA EBIL TRIGGED MEEE
did nobody take him aside after he spoke with Xi to remind him to lie? imagine running an empire but you choose the most idiotic antique sludges who you can't even properly handle as the figureheads
Americans looked at the board and realized that, actually, a two front land war in Asia would be a really bad idea. So he's ratcheting down tension with China in order to focus on Russia.
This also undercuts Republicans, who will be frothing at the bit to fight China but still think Putin is a Based Chad.
i dont think this is intentional realpolitik all the competent ghouls know china's the Big One and russias more a matter of pride and sales at this point after nordstreams been torpedoed
Yeah, but there's also something of an open question about what you can actually do to China.
Do you really want to go into a full Cold War or do you just want to lean on the Chinese until they accept Western privatization
goading china into attacking taiwan is the playbook, directly fighting isn't something the yankees are very confident about
