there are videos out there of the border skirmishes between azerbaijan and armenia. they both have modern technology. this is possibly the only modern war between two state powers of even strength. this is gonna be gruesome
It isn't quite even - they have equal access to modern tech, but Armenia is smaller and poorer, while Azerbaijan is oil rich. In addition, Azerbaijan is 100% backed by Turkey, for reasons of cultural ties, strategic alliance, and oil. Armenia has no fully committed allies. Russia comes closest and Armenia is aligned with Russia, but Russia is just as interested in an alliance with Azerbaijan as it is in an alliance with Armenia, so it's not as committed to the fight as Turkey is. Turkey's direct involvement is unlikely, but if, say, Armenia starts to lose badly, Russia couldn't rescue Armenia even if it wanted to, because that would bring in Turkey - and Russia wouldn't want to piss off both Azerbaijan and Turkey. If Armenia can't fight Azerbaijan off by itself, the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh will have to flee to Armenia. (That said, a small-scale Russo-Turkish proxy war is a possibility - that's what they're already doing in Syria, despite public friendship and decent trade relations.)
Armenians are a bit like Kurds, clinging desperately to a shrinking homeland, but without any great natural resources to attract strong allies, 'no allies but the mountains.'
Turkey is a NATO power and they're supplying Azerbaijan with weapons and drones
Armenia is a CSTO signatory, right? Are we about to see a proxy war between Russian and Turkish satellites?
That's what it seems like. Iran has reached out to Azerbaijan to sell an end to the incursions. Azerbaijan is close with Iran and Iran is close with Russia. Im not sure but I think Turkey is more influential than Iran in Azerbaijan.
Turkey is more influential, although Azerbaijan is Shia, like Iran. Azeris are a large minority in Iran, so while Iran and Azerbaijan share many cultural similarities, they have massive territorial disputes. For Turkey, Azerbaijan is the closest thing to a 2nd, mini-Turkey.
“NATO is deeply concerned by reports of large scale military hostilities along the line of contact in the Nagorno-Karabach conflict zone. The sides should immediately cease hostilities, which have already caused civilian casualties... “There is no military solution to this conflict. The parties should resume negotiations towards a peaceful resolution. NATO supports the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group.”
For the record: OSCE Minsk Group is related to Russia and America. So, they might actually be teaming up against Turkey and potentially Iran on Azerbaijan here
Iran isn't supporting Azerbaijan. Iran and turkish proxies are fighting in Syria, and during the last conflict, Iran sided with Armenia. But yes, if turkey gets involved, it'd get VERY fucking ugly, there's no way the EU stays out of this either.
Armenian news website news.am was hacked earlier today. During this time, an article which falsely claimed that Nikol Pashinyan called on Armenians to flee Nagorno-Karabakh was published.
Oh boy, y'all ready for ethnocentrism?
Too late, upon hearing the news of this conflict, Cenk immediately buried her alive to "eradicate the Armenian menace".
What’s her deal, she has even worse takes than dasha but she isn’t even hot.
Kim Kardashian called for the Azerbaijani aggression to stop lol
Imagine two 65 year old Azerbaijani generals. One turns to the other: Oh my god, Kim just atted us.
I don't know about that, Turkey will obviously aid them wherever they can, I mean if someone is fighting Armenians, how could they not join the show.
Anybody know where Russia falls in this?
Turks really just want to finish off the Armenians once and for all.
NSFL kinda: https://youtu.be/i4h8yahmxVc Armenian military footage of damage done to Azerbaijani forces, including corpses (most of the gore is censored)
I can't watch this, but I'm assuming it's really bad? How many casualties are we talking here.
There aren't any larger solid sets of forces, it's mostly scattered tank squads etc. They show downed aircraft, blown up tanks etc. Probably about 15-20 bodies are shown, though anything super gorey is censored. There was one body that was charred in a crawling position next to a tank, it was still on fire (they blurred out the face but showed the rest).
neither. azerbaijan is led by right wing conservatives and armenia is led by neoliberals. since the two neoliberal faces are fighting each other, this could lead to a socialist uprising, as that is not uncommon in the face of war and invasion in smaller powers such as these
does russia supports armenia?, i know turkey supports azerbaijan, if is yes then this could turn into a proxy war between russia and turkey
i would assume so. neither country has any left party, even the social democrats have been barred from government in both countries
I believe they do. This definitely seems like a proxy war. Let's just hope that the US doesn't try to get involved. Also according to liveuamap Russian air force planes have landed in Yerevan.
I mean, Baku is oil rich and kind if friendly with Iran. The US would love to set up base there
Armenians are cool with the status quo (i.e. the Armenian-populated part within the legal borders of Azerbaijan remains Armenian-held), Azerbaijan is the one that wants conflict. So Azerbaijan is the aggressor and Armenia the victim (though both did massacres/ethnic cleansing against each other in the past).
However, Azerbaijan is bigger and stronger and wants its legal territory back. So the likely outcome is Azerbaijan gets it all back after a lot of bloody fighting - unless there's international pressure for the conflict to end or Armenia can pull off another upset victory.
In terms of leftist politics, there's no winners here. It's ethnic strife and unless the Red Army comes back through a time machine no one is interested in stopping it, external powers only see profit in the war.
What causes the hostilities? Are we looking at ethno-nationalist expansion like liebesbraum? Was it a war over water rights?
War over disputed territory ( there have been some conflicts about that area already IIRC ).
the soviets fucked up a bit and let this region trade hands a couple times as SSRs. they obviously didnt take into account their own demise so they figured things would be stable in the future due to the compromises they set up. unfortunately, the nationalists movements really jerk it to this territory due to the past soviet swatches
