the competency of our politicians and the ability of the American people not to slobber on each other.
:doomer:
I think if the vaccine doesn't mutate (or even if it does but the mutation is still zapped by the vaccine) it will be quite a bit less than a year or two before immunity happens. If the US averages 1 million vax per day it's herd immunity by the summer. 750k a day and it's immunity by the fall.
We will stay like this as long as we can without changing the economy. When it gets bad enough then capital will do just enough to keep itself going. Even if absolutely nothing were being done, covid wouldn't kill enough people. So at the very worst you're looking at killing people who are either too old to be productive or too unhealthy to let live and burden the medical system with chronic conditions. That's not enough incentive for capital to do something drastic. Also consider that with everything that has happened, the stock market is at record highs. That has no bearing on our lives but it does to theirs. Look at how many new billionaires there are. No reason to do any more when doing nothing has been so profitable. When that kind of stuff becomes impossible, there will be just enough concessions to keep the thing from collapsing completely.
They haven't given much so for but eventually they'll have to. People have to keep spending/consuming and people still are needed to work front line jobs. So they'll have to inject more stimulus and make those jobs more attractive as this goes on. Like one example is a lot of nurses are looking for a different career path right now. They can't afford for a massive drop in nurses. So they'll have to make those jobs safer so people will be okay working them, or they'll have to pay people enough to risk it anyways.
I just don't know when that will be. I think another year or two of poor vaccine distribution could do it. Or if covid were to mutate and start killing younger people more.
But that is one of the contradictions of capitalism, it often isn’t willing to take the measures necessary for its continued existence.
when has it not done that?
It's not profitable long term though.
They will panic when retail (even online) starts to really drop.
It's not which is why they're going to have to give concessions at some point. All I mean by concessions is injecting cash so people can continue to spend. Also making "front line" jobs more attractive so people will want to work them.
Lmao it's not gonna be 7 years, where are you people getting that? Sensitive groups will be vaccinated before summer and then there's gonna be a dip in cases due to summer anyways. Then people will say fuck it, sensitive groups are good now so we're gonna have our summer. Then it's gonna spread through many young people and then herd immunity will be reached, the rest will be vaccinated until the end of the year. Even if vaccines weren't around enough people would be infected that after a few years it would either just stop or it would mutate into a less dangerous form.
The multiple years left/it will never be over doom porn in this thread is legitimately dangerous misinformation.
It's already mutated into multiple more dangerous forms.
We could keep going like this before B.1.1.7. Now that's going to kill an absurd number of people due to hospitals getting completely overwhelmed. People who would have been okay even now.
It’s already mutated into multiple more dangerous forms.
None of the strains it has mutated into so far are different enough for antibodies created for another strain to not recognize them. Also they seem to spread more easily but not cause more serious illness.
Spreading more easily is dangerous because it makes lockdowns ineffective and could overwhelm our medical systems.
Could. We could also impose stricter lockdowns and slow the spread enough paired with a vaccine program that picks up as we start to sort things out.
They also said that modifying it to cover the SA strain would take weeks for the pfizer vaccine, if it's needed.
I thought herd immunity isn’t really a thing?
No, herd immunity is the reason polio, measles etc don't really exist in the first world any more. Herd immunity is absolutely a real thing, unless it starts mutating rapidly enough. One issue is that with the new strains the herd immunity threshold is higher but enough vaccines are produced that it won't be a big issue.
I’d guess life will start resembling pre-pandemic around the middle of the year. The vaccine is out and distribution will improve over time. We already have the infrastructure to vaccinate a million people a day. If we approach and hold that pace in the US that’s half the population vaccinated by the summer. Add that to the 20 or so percent of Americans who will be immune due to infection and herd immunity in midsummer is completely realistic.
New cases and Deaths are probably peaking right now and if the vaccine rolls out at that pace should plummet in the spring as the country warms up and there are fewer vulnerable people. Daily cases could be 10% of what they are right now by April and 1% of what they are right now by June.
January and February will be very dark, however, the collapse porn in this thread is not supported by the science. I would be surprised if the death toll by the end of the year is under 600k.
vaccines for coronaviruses in general have never been successfully made
We did make one. It's being distributed now.
This is doomer stuff.
efficacy against the SA variant hasn't been demonstrated, the lead of the Astrazeneca vaccine says he's "concerned" because the new mutations are on the part that codes for how it interacts with antibodies
Apparently "hasn't been demonstrated yet" means "it won't work"? It was already demonstrated for the British variant. It is extremely unlikely any strain will render the vaccines useless, at worst they may be less effective.
At least 20% of covid survivors are permanently disabled, probably even higher with somewhat ignorable permanent symptoms
Can I get a source on this 👀. Among my own friend group this isn’t even true.
If 20% of covid survivors were permanently disabled that would already be - extremely conservatively - 6 million people. Realistically it’s three times more. That’s 2-6% of the entire population. This has not actually happened.
20% have damage that might cause lasting problems.
That doesn't mean they are dying or won't recover. Doesn't even mean they will ever even know (if COVID damage causes me to take a heart attack at 55.... that sucks but I'm not gonna be a doomer about it).
Don't worry, thanks to climate change unless you're like 40 you most likely weren't anyway.
Are we seriously going to stay like this for years?
Yes, we have already been collapsing for over a decade while white libs and lefties ignore the threat because acknowledging it means giving up their smugness, and because it feels better to make fun of 400 lb militiatards than to acknowledge that an obese human can still kill dozens with an AR15.
We will continue to collapse into a warzone that makes Iraq look like a 1st world country, all the while libs accusing China of human rights violations and "Han supremacy" while POC get systematically lynched in suburbs
I think its unironically better to "LeArN tO CoDe" than it would be to do small arms training in such a scenario were to be known to definitely unfold in that manner.
Lol, China doesn't have the capability to invade the US. How the fuck would they even get troops over here? You couldn't paradrop enough troops in for an actual invasion, not to mention that paradropping requires air superiority in the first place which China would not be capable of getting because they couldn't even get most of their air force over here. You couldn't do a naval invasion across the entire pacific ocean, so what, are they gonna push through Alaska like in fuckin fallout? I doubt they could even get there unless Russia let them use Chukotka as a staging ground for some reason, and even if they did, good luck pushing an Army through all the mountain ranges up there.
Lol, China doesn’t have the capability to invade the US
All the non-white nations in the world combined, do. And Russia and Europe would almost definitely join because they probably don't want to risk it anyway.
US nuke arsenal getting taken over by wigger nationalists = the entire world now has to invade the US, or risk getting nuked. Very simple. Sakaiism becomes real because they force it to.
I mean I find the scenario you're describing so incredibly unlikely as to be bad alt-history anyway, honestly. Even in that situation the various non-white countries are still gonna have bullshit geopolitical bickering and reasons to believe that trying to invade the US would be a very bad idea, like.. for example, I don't see Mexico ever agreeing to spearhead an invasion of the US.
And this hypothetical would need them to for any of the world's combined military might to be able to actually get within striking range of the US. I think you're drastically underestimating how big of a strategic asset the geographical isolation of the USA is.
You seriously think this is going to happen within two years? Holy shit, some of the people on this site are so detached from reality.
Tell you what, if I don't die in the PLANs glorious unprecedented logistically magical amphibious invasion of Seattle, I'll crawl back to this ancient thread and admit I was wrong.
more likely scenario in my view is that a Junta of some sort seizes control and maintains peace on the grounds of having firm control of the nukes and military.
It really is, and it's probably the reason Xi told his troops to "be ready for war at any second"
nah, China and the rest of the United States favorite scapegoats must always ready for war because the United States is a uncontrollable and schizophrenic monster that, every 4 years, rolls the dice on whether they elect a monster who nonetheless maintains the tenuous status quo, or insane lunatics, who often already reside at levels of power within the government, who go on public TV salivating over the idea of starting WWIII with China, Russia, Iran, etc.
nah, China and the rest of the United States favorite scapegoats must always ready for war
no shit, every military is technically "always ready for war", but there's a level of emphasis that you put beyond that for when you're REALLY expecting war in the immediate term, you are really libbing the minutiae here
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3116436/xi-jinping-orders-chinas-military-be-ready-war-any-second
No need to be a fucking asshole. when the most insane country on earth ramps up aggression against any nation they have to respond in turn, but it's not like this is something new. More importantly, to the original comment that you responded to, Xi's orders in no way indicate a plan to "pre-emptively or reactively invade the US", China's strategies and responses are one million percent defensive. You don't get to call me a lib if you seriously want to argue that the PLA will swoop in will save America from itself.
invading a nation to prevent 8000 nukes falling into terrorist hands is defensive.
vaccines are already likely obsolete
why? and what are WNs?
The US is vaccinating at a rate of 700k PER DAy. So, by summer everything will be normal in the US, provided there are no mutations.
Arizona announced it plans to vaccinate 70% of the population by 31 July 2021, but they're already behind schedule. I imagine every US state is more or less in the same position. I'm guessing this means it'll probably be another year before everyone who wants to get the vaccine has one.
I really don't want to do this shit for another year.
Eh, if herd immunity is ~70% then a state only has to vaccinate ~50% of the population since I imagine most states already have 20% immune due to infection. Even at this slow pace it shouldn’t be another year.
one entire half of my family just got covid the same day my partner got vaccinated. so the situation is definately mixed
getting back together, you go zoom with your friends, facetime my friends, dm me, but wee-eé are never ever ever getting back together
I think the new normal is going to be a seasonal COVID of varying virulence/lethality. The silver lining is that antibodies to previous strains will confer SOME (but not guaranteed) immunity. A yearly COVID vaccine is probably going to be adapted, the question is if yearly vaccination is going to be universally recommended, or just to high-risk populations.
