This is probably related to this colour revolution thread from yesterday.
UAZ "Patriot" MIA trailers with barbwire now deployed in Minsk, capital of Belarus.
Additional forces deploying, including water cannons and a machine setting up barbwire.
Random photo of Belarus forces in Minsk, can't confirm for certain that it was taken today though.
What's the risk?
NATO does what it wants. Take an advantage when you can grab it, expand Capital to a new country, put your enemies in check.
It's about what you can get away with, really.