(Note: I haven't listened to this yet personally)
Included a map of hypothetical Russian operational plans drawn up on the eve of it starting by this guy who correctly called the leadup to war months in advance. The Crimea axis of advance in particular right now looks particularly accurate.
This is a must listen. This is how you respond to being wrong as a lleftist, not with the know-it-all posturing of so many people here.
I'd better not see any know-it-all posturing from anyone about this after it was weeks of everyone saying and thinking the whole thing was overblown (myself included), sit down and eat your crow
I myself was aggressively skeptical about an actual war happening (though always hedged my bets, I always did have that nagging feeling it was always a possibility because I would never have put that past Putin specifically) but once they halted certification on Nord Stream 2 on Monday I got that horrifying feeling deep in my gut that we had reached a turning point. When the US warned of imminent invasion the next day...that time, and that time only, I finally believed them. And it still shocked me when it all really got rolling.
While we arguably may never know if this invasion was really as inevitable as the NATO hawks claimed and will brag about incessantly in the near future, I must admit - as they said in this very episode - that suddenly a lot of earlier incidents make a lot more sense and a lot of Putin's more recent actions (especially the sabre-rattling test case build-up last year) make it look a lot more premeditated by Putin than the left might have given him credit for before this week. While I always knew Ukraine was very much a powder keg waiting to happen this is still an extremely shocking turning point in world history and a genuinely irrational long-term decision by Putin IMO. My perception of his character and demeanor has significantly shifted in the wake of this.
And if people have listened to Derek Davison's recent talks on American Prestige and CTH itself - this is very much a nightmare scenario for the left. Basically every institutional force the left should be opposing has been empowered by this decision. And it's frustrating to even see many ostensibly left organizations IRL and even users on this very site seem to default to de facto simping for Putin in what is very much a situation where universal revolutionary defeatism applies and "critical support" absolutely does not. I myself have made arguments in the past that might on the surface appear to be apologia for the Russian regime, if only in the interest of arguing against a brinksmanship that might lead to a shooting war or nuclear war - but now that an inter-imperialist war of indisputable Russian aggression is a reality (no matter their reasons), the only legitimate position of the left should be uncompromising revolutionary defeatism for all parties involved.
Maybe there needs to be an effort post on revolutionary defeatism.
It's particularly noticeable how it strengthens the institutions we generally oppose while at the same time an awful lot of the Western left keeps digging. The shallowness of leftist international takes, particularly online, is damn near at the level of fandom rather than actual analysis.
As each hour passes since the invasion began the takes get work worse (Reddit militia thread here, don't get me started on Twitter shit)
I've brought it up several times half jokingly (including this thread) and I'm going to continue to do so because it's very much time to do some self-crit and figure out how the "analysis" of the online left, and myself had such a huge blind spot. If people want to jump right back in with serving geopolitical takes without self-reflecting then I'm not too interested in being a part of such a community.
Fortunately, it seems that a majority of us on here who were caught off guard recognize that it's time to humble ourselves and re-evaluate.
I feel you on the self crit, because I had the same mistaken belief about this that I did about the US invading Iraq: that it was too stupid and self-defeating to actually happen, and therefore there was just sabre rattling to force concessions.
I really need to work on that - feels like I'm big braining myself into homo internationalus theory (as opposed to homo economicus).
They sum up my thoughts. This war will be so grim. They also show that yes you can condemn both sides of this.
Good episode imo. Relating it to the Kosovo war at the end is good. Grim questions.
