I know this is an impossible question, the future is chaos, but we can at least identify and discuss some key factors.
When I say "successful leftist revolution" I mean one that happens soon enough to prevent, or have non-negligible odds of preventing, the collapse of human civilization as we know it due to climate change.
In all likelihood I think we're fucked as far as climate change is concerned, but we should still try to improve our odds. There's no prize for correctly predicting that we're fucked.
Trump probably.
Or at least it would happen quicker, if it were to happen at all. Accelerationism and all that.
The tradeoff is that, while a crisis is more likely under Trump, fascist opposition might also be more effective under Trump.
I honestly disagree. A Trump loss would make the right more dangerous and deranged than it is even now.
...oh man, that does sound plausible.
What about state opposition?
state will always oppose the left. literally always.
What about the last 4 years has associated Trump with "effective"? He couldn't even invade Iran or coup Venezuela. Whereas if it was Hillary, Maduro would have been Gaddaffi'd already.
in a nutshell: fascists can get bold under Trump. Trump himself isn't the threat.
but do we want a dirty revolution full of filthy libs?
Well, people don't tend to stay with an ideology that is humiliated live, that's not how radicalization/polarization works.
the libs will turn fascist, let's be real