I know this is an impossible question, the future is chaos, but we can at least identify and discuss some key factors.
When I say "successful leftist revolution" I mean one that happens soon enough to prevent, or have non-negligible odds of preventing, the collapse of human civilization as we know it due to climate change.
In all likelihood I think we're fucked as far as climate change is concerned, but we should still try to improve our odds. There's no prize for correctly predicting that we're fucked.
I think almost undoubtedly Biden win.
The left right now is a real unorganized mess. Strike breaking laws and anti-"gang" laws made it nearly impossible to organize in person. The left is just now figuring out the use of social media for mobilization and meetup.
If Trump wins the quicker rapid acceleration into fascism means the left is as it is now. Worse armed, worse organized, and already a rhetorical enemy of both the right and the state.
If Biden wins (I think) it'll give at least four year window of to further organize before we have President Carlson/Cotton/Whoever.
I agree with this take. In what situation has the revolution been hastened by a fascist victory?
Cuba and Russia, yes. Germany and Italy, no.
Cuba wasn't a fascist victory, it was decades (centuries, really) of imperial dominance. Russia also wasn't a fascist victory - the libs had just won and that paved way for the communists to carry the torch.
Batista was definitely one nasty motherfucker and so was the tsar. I don’t know of Batista being explicitly racist but the tsar blamed Jews for everything and the Black Hundreds were definitely a proto-fascist gang (like the Freikorps).
I’m reading Cuba Libre right now, it’s all about Cuba during the revolution, with many parallels to the current situation in the USA, although things have actually not gotten as bad here as they were in Cuba under Batista.
China, Cuba, Russia, Vietnam, Nicaragua,
Hell, Angola now that I think about it
I don't know about Nicaragua but none of the rest of those were after fascist victories.
Damn, I'll go tell Ho and Giap the Japanese weren't fascist
Did Japan win? As far as I remember, they lost WWII and got kicked the fuck out of the rest of Asia. And they were acting in those countries as an imperial power. Repelling a foreign empire is completely different from electing homegrown fascists. Which is my point. Nowhere did fascists gaining power advance a revolution in the same country (or at least if it has happened it's very rare for it work out that way; like I said, I don't really know much about Nicaragua's situation).
I like this take best.
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I agree with the general point of your post that were not near revolution and need to focus on working class organization, I just have a few nitpicks.
You're right Biden won't slow this down, but the right has been hearing up for this seriously since Obama was nominated for president. There's a limit to right wing organization outside of the state apparatus in a fascist (or falling into fascism) country. Not to say they aren't useful allies of fascists, just that there's a limit to outside right wing organization.
Richard Spencer is a grifter and has been struggling for money for a long time having been deplatformed as a Nazi, he endorsed Biden to try and get into liberal circles imo. Not for any ideology, but for the money.
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Yeah I completely agree, and that would seem to support that having a president that doesn't outwardly support them would be a detriment to them at least in the short term, no?