I’d say the Philippines or Burkina Faso, especially Burkina Faso because of its history with socialism and the newest leadership of the country being an educated citizen and a doing some what leftist policies so far.
On top of all of that the reason why the current leader has so much popular support is because he talks about Sankara positively.
He also has people in his leadership who have literally written (positively framed) theory, analysis and lit on Sankara's life.
They are fully aware of his legacy and cherish it.
Edit: Oh yeah more importantly they brought justice to the person who killed Sankara.
Burkina Faso may end up adopting something similar to the socialist model that Libya had before Gaddafi was murdered. The Philippines i am very skeptical about. I would suggest rather that Haiti has a lot of revolutionary potential at the moment, and that the political and social situation there is essentially already a revolutionary one. Attempts at western intervention have so far not succeeded, but the window of opportunity will not stay open forever. All they are lacking is an organized vanguard party with a clear political-ideological goal and a strategy for seizing power.
Well, there are revolutionaries processes ongoing on india and philippines, im not up to date on how they are progressing. in the rest of the third world maxism is slowly rebuilding, my guess the next one will be in africa continent, since there is still an anti colonial struggle.
The Philippines are a US colony and their colonization is only increasing.
I think Cuba didn't have as many American bases on it or a population that was quite as culturally Americanized. But point taken. You never know what can happen.
India is quite unlikely. The naxalite movement has been on the decline for a while now and a variant of ethno-fascism promoted by the ruling party has been growing rampantly for a decade now.
the attack on the naxalites is something that both the current bjp and the past governments have in common. actually some might say that naxalism and marxism-leninism has seen a new found popularity among the youth of this country as of recently. this is a result of the contradictions of modern indian politics and is a good thing that there is hope for this country's future. the main issue still, lies in the utter disarray of the machinery of the naxalite parties with the biggest one, cpi maoist losing a hell lot of territory in the 2010s and doesn't show any improvement in their performance whatsoever.
If a northeastern state seceeded, would it likely be a communist state?
Unlikely. Assuming they managed to secede in the first place (also unlikely), most of the rebel groups are christian tribal militias. I support their cause, but they won't be communist states except maybe in name.
Eswatini, Kenya, or South Africa maybe. They all have fairly strong parties.
Reporting in from South Africa. Revolution is still a while off, most likely, but anti-colonialism is pretty big. The biggest left party (Economic Freedom Fighters) are mostly focused on getting reforms, which isn't ideal, but it might work due to the way South Africa has developed. Unfortunately political consciousness is nowhere near what's needed for a revolution though, so that's unlikely for that to happen soon.
Hoping I'm wrong, though.
Maybe Kanaky (New Caledonia), although it's not clear how active the communists are in the current uprising. Thought I saw something about communists being active there, but can't find it anymore.
EDIT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanak_and_Socialist_National_Liberation_Front, NVM this is the pro-independence opposition party, but sadly they seem to be socdem instead
Do things in Kanaky look like they can gain independence currently, without foreign assistance though?
I wish them the best, but I suspect their circumstances- as a small island chain in the Pacific, near Australia and NZ, and in the context of France scrambling to save face in the wake of losing several of its west African neocolonies, things likely won't go well at the moment.
I could see Swaziland becoming socialist as well, with their communist party fighting against the king's rule
Speaking as a South African who grew up on the border of Swaziland, the CPS are doing fantastic work and I can personally testify their bourgeoisie are shitting bricks as a result. Hopefully our Swazi comrades see freedom soon.
The Communist party of Swaziland refers to their country as Swaziland in english, that's why I used that name. But tbf both are good
It's almost socialist already, the economic model and all.
as an indian bengali i'd love to say india but the activity of the naxal parties has been really underwhelming as of recently.
I am not Indian but I would also love to say India. If it could happen, it would be amazing.
It's not really a country right now but I think Taiwan is the most likely to become socialist.
I haven't seen anyone mention Haiti yet but by all accounts the situation there is quite ripe for revolution.
