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Hopefully this is a path to the much-needed relief from the blockade that's strangling Cuba
Indeed, one of the rules of BRICS is that countries cannot sanction one another. This would open Cuba to unfettered trade with the biggest economic bloc in the world.
The actual mechanisms of the Cuban blockade are that any ship/shipping company that trades with Cuba is banned from American ports for the next 6 months. If BRICS is openly inviting Cuba in, that means that a meaningful chunk of the economic bloc's logistics companies feel comfortable effectively never dealing with the US, which has massive implications for global trade going forward.
Indeed, and I think this is possible because BRICS is already a bigger trading bloc than G7. It's also where most actual manufacturing happens. So, if the US continues its policy then US companies will end up in far more pain than the respective BRICS companies. Incidentally, it's the same dynamic that we currently see playing out with sanctions on Russia where most of the pain is being felt in Europe.
I don't know enough about Chinese business to be sure, but theoretically they could make "The Sino-Cuba Shipping Company" that handles all direct trade with Cuba and could sideline that rule.
Or maybe they're calling US's bluff? I doubt the US would continue the embargo and sanctions if it devastated its own economy as a result.
Regardless, this is great news and I hope Cuba gets admitted and treated as it should!
You'd think so, but US policy towards Cuba has hardly ever been rational.
That is not historically how the blockade works, but you never know.
Reminder that even most of
supports ending the embargo, it's only the US that wants to keep it going.Are you forgetting someone?
Show
Harden your heart oh Putin!
Even within the US itself, the resentment aimed at Cuba is reserved nearly exclusively by Cuban ex-pats (who have been wallowing in fascist propaganda for half a century) and the state security services (who continue to resent Cuba as a gaping hole in the Caribbean security perimeter and an enormous black mark on their history).
Mainstream Americans have no real skin in the game. Cuban foreign policy doesn't crack the top ten policies most Americans care about. And the generally positive pressure around Cuba as a resort location and a luxury brand has left the average tourist-brained American envious rather than hateful.
Great to see! Finally some light at the end of the tunnel of suffering caused by the blockade.
Where did this application fall on the "just a diplomatic formality announcing something that is going to happen soon" to "the first beginning of a long and arduous process where nothing is guaranteed" scale?
Is this Sweden wanting to join NATO or Ukraine wanting to join NATO?
Nah, I think this will have tangible consequences of opening up trade for Cuba.
I also think South Africa would look favourably on the Cuban application, given Cuba's role in supporting the struggle against apartheid.
Cuba is a rich nation when its borders are open. And with all the sanctions flying around from the US, I can see a point at which you can do business between Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Russia, and China without ever touching an American market, simply because so much shit has been added to the sanctions list.
Currently, a country declares itself interested in joining BRICS at which point there's a process of consultation between the chair of BRICS (who talks to the interested party), the foreign ministers of BRICS (who talk to their own leaders) and then the heads of government themselves. With the latter you need to build a consensus towards extending an invitation. Once that happens the country joins as soon as its leader chooses to. It's also not like the original 5 are BRICS' security council. The consensus includes all 10 members.
Ironically, had Milei let Argentina join he could play a spoiler and deny Cuba entry.
I think this is a good source for the current legalese. Which might change with the next summit in Kazan.
let out an involuntary "oh hell yeah" Really hope this can help to ease some of the pressure from the US's boot on their neck, and excited for the longer-term consequences this could have
Would China let them in and what consequences would this have on their trade with the US if they do?
The US is already in a trade war with China that's only escalating. The most immediate impact would be that the US could block Chinese companies trading with Cuba from access to their market.
Sure, but according to this, US-China trade in 2023 represented around 575 billions $ worth of goods (of which US goods produced in China wouldn't be immediately impacted I suppose). I guess it would depend on who gets hurt more, China or the US at the end of the day but it could have huge consequences for both countries
It's absolutely about who gets hurt more, and it's worth noting that China has already been actively redirecting trade towards the Global South https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/2-words-explain-china-export-surge-global-south/
I think the big difference is that China produces things that the whole world needs, and it's much easier for Chinese companies to find alternative buyers than for US to find things they get from China, many of which aren't even produced anywhere else.
I want to be optimistic about this but its quite improbable that China is willing to die on the Cuban hill out of nowhere for little gain when they're currently giving up on the arguably far more important(materially if not ideologically important) Russian hill e.g they're letting US sanctions on Chinese banks affect trade with Russia.
We'll see but I smell they'll do something like honorary member or some shit and give marginal diplomatic or whatever benefits, maybe disguise it as foreign aid or something.
The reality is that the US is already in an open trade war with China, and it's only going to escalate. Doing trade with Cuba is gonna be no different than doing trade with Russia from China's perspective. Chinese trade with Russia has exploded since the war started.
