The polling is ridiculously in Biden's favor, it's actually crazy for a presidential election. Trump's only real shot is some gigantic election fraud. Still pretty unlikely but 2020 do be like that sometimes
I'll prob get flack for this, but this election isn't the same as 2016. People know exactly how Trump runs (or doesn't) the country now. People know how bad shit continues to get with him and his insane cabinet. We also knew what type of person Clinton was too, which is why she had such a staunch opposition from left right and center. Tons of usual disinterested voters are fucking pissed about covid and how it has been handled, among other things. I think that in itself makes this election different enough to have a bit more faith in the misleading and terrible polling we had last election. Plenty of folks are annoyed enough hearing about trump 24/7 they'll just vote against him.
I'm pretty sure it's happening with a lot of old voters. There was a goddamn grandma yelling fuck trump at the luxury retirement community at The Villages lol. I don't think The Villages is very left leaning but they relate to like everything Biden is in politics for them
Shit, it sounds nice to me. You know how happy I was in the early '10s? I miss not being constantly bombarded with horror every goddamn day. I'll still follow politics, I always have- but it's nice to be able to watch a movie or read a book without having that dull screaming in the back of my mind
this is the main reason right here. people can lie to polls but democrats vote by mail more than republicans and early / mail voting is just so far ahead
That doesn't mean much. The Democrats who voted on Election Day are voting by mail, that doesn't mean the final number will change because of that.
The Republicans who voted on Election Day and aren't voting by mail will still vote on Election Day. Again, the final number isn't changed.
Plus, Dems voting by mail = Trump looking like a clear winner on election night = a legal challenge at the "suspicious" Biden bump = Dems folding and letting Trump make himself the winner.
I guess the calculation is that if there's significant enough voting disruption, it doesn't matter how people would have voted, there's going to be a crisis.
Y'all think the military industrial complex and big finance is keen on starting the boogaloo? They already got a puppet with compliant handlers ready to take over. Why would they let shit escalate from here?
There's a half-baked thought coming from this rambling, but
when Trump won despite polling favoring Hillary in places she outright lost - I heard a guy talking about Jesse Ventura when he won governor of Minnesota. The same thing happened then, exit polls showing that he was getting whipped, because people that were voting for him were embarrassed/ashamed/just didn't want to get scolded. I think Trump supporters now are obviously more vocal, but it really didn't feel like it in 2016 - at least not to that extent.
So if it would hurt your friendships, your job, etc to say you were voting Trump (these being the rest of his voter base that roll conservative regardless) - why would you fess up to it, polls included.
The polling is ridiculously in Biden's favor, it's actually crazy for a presidential election. Trump's only real shot is some gigantic election fraud. Still pretty unlikely but 2020 do be like that sometimes
I'll prob get flack for this, but this election isn't the same as 2016. People know exactly how Trump runs (or doesn't) the country now. People know how bad shit continues to get with him and his insane cabinet. We also knew what type of person Clinton was too, which is why she had such a staunch opposition from left right and center. Tons of usual disinterested voters are fucking pissed about covid and how it has been handled, among other things. I think that in itself makes this election different enough to have a bit more faith in the misleading and terrible polling we had last election. Plenty of folks are annoyed enough hearing about trump 24/7 they'll just vote against him.
Its also far more conceivable that someone who supported Trump would be willing to swap over to Biden than Hillary
I'm pretty sure it's happening with a lot of old voters. There was a goddamn grandma yelling fuck trump at the luxury retirement community at The Villages lol. I don't think The Villages is very left leaning but they relate to like everything Biden is in politics for them
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this is Biden's base, honestly lol
"getting to not think of the president for like a week at a time" is no shit a pretty good sell after the last four years
Biden 2020: let the libs go back to sleep again
to the type of people who normally only do politics every 4 years? abso-fucking-lutely
Shit, it sounds nice to me. You know how happy I was in the early '10s? I miss not being constantly bombarded with horror every goddamn day. I'll still follow politics, I always have- but it's nice to be able to watch a movie or read a book without having that dull screaming in the back of my mind
Biden's gonna fuckin lose.
Biden is way ahead of Clinton.
COVID and the resulting fallout have cost Trump his chance.
Clinton had a 70% chance of winning, it was not crazy for a presidential election
Early voting is up like 80x compared to 2016
this is the main reason right here. people can lie to polls but democrats vote by mail more than republicans and early / mail voting is just so far ahead
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That doesn't mean much. The Democrats who voted on Election Day are voting by mail, that doesn't mean the final number will change because of that.
The Republicans who voted on Election Day and aren't voting by mail will still vote on Election Day. Again, the final number isn't changed.
Plus, Dems voting by mail = Trump looking like a clear winner on election night = a legal challenge at the "suspicious" Biden bump = Dems folding and letting Trump make himself the winner.
Biden will not be President.
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She did win the popular vote but the electoral college is fucked, Biden will either do the same or manage to win despite it
If Trump already lost the popular vote in 2016 now is going to get steam rolled
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What about all of his poll watchers and militias and shit?
I guess the calculation is that if there's significant enough voting disruption, it doesn't matter how people would have voted, there's going to be a crisis.
Early voting is also several times higher than it ever has been
Y'all think the military industrial complex and big finance is keen on starting the boogaloo? They already got a puppet with compliant handlers ready to take over. Why would they let shit escalate from here?
Just absolute crazy amounts of Von Papen energy right here.
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There's a half-baked thought coming from this rambling, but
when Trump won despite polling favoring Hillary in places she outright lost - I heard a guy talking about Jesse Ventura when he won governor of Minnesota. The same thing happened then, exit polls showing that he was getting whipped, because people that were voting for him were embarrassed/ashamed/just didn't want to get scolded. I think Trump supporters now are obviously more vocal, but it really didn't feel like it in 2016 - at least not to that extent.
So if it would hurt your friendships, your job, etc to say you were voting Trump (these being the rest of his voter base that roll conservative regardless) - why would you fess up to it, polls included.
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Who needs election fraud when he can just do a coup?