Also the model had been modified this time. Earlier in the campaign Trump had a higher chance of winning despite consistently polling worse against Biden than Hillary. Polls can be wrong, predicting the future is difficult, and predicting a victor with America's electoral college is difficult, but it's kind of absurd to pretend this isn't a difference now vs 2016.
And back four years ago, libs put out op eds and tweeted up a storm talking about how Silver's stats are so obviously off and he's not weighting his data correctly...
Follow 538 then. Trump had a 30% chance of winning last election day, currently it's 12%
Also the model had been modified this time. Earlier in the campaign Trump had a higher chance of winning despite consistently polling worse against Biden than Hillary. Polls can be wrong, predicting the future is difficult, and predicting a victor with America's electoral college is difficult, but it's kind of absurd to pretend this isn't a difference now vs 2016.
Yeah the polls are paying a lot more attention to education
And back four years ago, libs put out op eds and tweeted up a storm talking about how Silver's stats are so obviously off and he's not weighting his data correctly...